Those attending USDA’s 101st Agricultural Outlook Forum kept their focus on the industry even as the disruptions in Washington and across the country continue to come from the Trump administration.
USDA’s forecasts not seen out of line
USDA’s commodity outlooks released ahead of the confab gave participants time to mull those forecasts before presentations from agency analysts. The anticipated rise in corn acres and decline in soybean plantings was not a surprise. Industry veterans noted the shifts in acreage as projected by USDA at this stage will be subject to changes as weather and prices evolve. USDA’s first official 2025-26 balance sheets in May will reflect farmer input from the March Prospective Plantings Report.
Key trade challenges, opportunities for U.S. ag
Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation, outlined key issues affecting U.S. agricultural trade and exports. He highlighted the cyclical nature of commodity markets, noting that farm income peaked in 2022 alongside record exports of $195 billion but declined as exports dropped to $176 billion in 2024.
Doud criticized EU trade policies for restricting U.S. agricultural innovation, expressed concerns over China’s slowing demand and identified obstacles in accessing India’s market. He also flagged Mexico’s regulatory issues as a major risk to North American livestock.
With global protein demand set to rise, Doud emphasized the U.S.’s strong position, citing $8 billion in dairy processing investments.
While they can be unnerving, he suggested tariffs could be a useful tool to level the playing field and expand U.S. exports. Despite challenges in negotiations, Doud stressed the importance of expanding global market opportunities for U.S. agriculture.
Biofuels policy a key area of interest
Trade is always a key topic that gets addressed at the USDA gathering, but several topics this year also dealt with biofuels and issues like carbon emissions related to those policies. USDA and others presented views on the topics, generating a lot of interest in those attending their specific session. Outside the meeting, the biofuels talk continued but uncertainty left many still pondering what the exact outcomes will be.
The Trump effect
Those delivering presentations at the conference, whether from government or the private sector, stayed “on topic” even as the events of the initial weeks of the Trump administration were clearly evident.
USDA agencies also have their own exhibit hall at the session, offering them a chance to interact with conference goers. These workers approached their jobs with professionalism and were pleasant and engaging even amid matters such as workforce reductions and other sweeping changes from the Trump administration. However, some uttered phrases like “this is crazy” or “this is unbelievable” as they chatted.
There was a focus on what the impacts could have on USDA and the various services and data it provides to the industry and how those could be affected as the changes ordered by the Trump administration unfold. But even that conjecture was somewhat limited as no one knows exactly what will happen, how broad any changes will be and whether the moves will affect the data and reports/data produced by USDA. But there was a general consensus USDA data is needed to provide a level playing field for farmers and benchmarks for the industry.
Changing of the guard in agriculture sector
It was encouraging to see the age level continue to decline at the event, which holds promise for continued growth in the ag sector. Many newer attendees were found talking to those “old hands” that were present.