Cotton and wheat carryover also came in lighter than expected. On the other hand, soybean carryover climbed a bit more than expected for both 2020-21 and 2021-22.
USDA’s updated winter wheat production estimate came in just shy of expectations and up nearly 12% from last year’s crop.
The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters, with the exception of cotton, which is based on polling by Bloomberg.
U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels | ||
2020-21 | 2021-22 | |
USDA | 1.107 | 1.357 |
Average est. | 1.207 | 1.423 |
USDA May | 1.257 | 1.507 |
Soybeans – million bushels | ||
2020-21 | 2021-22 | |
USDA | 135 | 155 |
Average est. | 122 | 146 |
USDA May | 120 | 140 |
| ||
Wheat – million bushels | ||
2020-21 | 2021-22 | |
USDA | 852 | 770 |
Average est. | 869 | 783 |
USDA May | 872 | 774 |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
2020-21 | 2021-22 | |
USDA | 3.15 | 2.90 |
Average est. | NA | 2.99 |
USDA May | 3.30 | 3.10 |
Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
USDA | 280.60 | 289.41 |
World less China | 82.42 | 91.26 |
Average est. | 280.82 | 289.20 |
USDA May | 283.53 | 292.30 |
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
USDA | 88.00 | 92.55 |
World less China | 56.20 | 58.56 |
Average est. | 87.14 | 91.22 |
USDA May | 86.55 | 91.10 |
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
USDA | 293.48 | 296.80 |
World less China | 147.85 | 154.17 |
Average est. | 294.41 | 294.49 |
USDA May | 294.67 | 294.96 |
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
USDA | 93.05 | 89.30 |
World less China | 54.18 | 53.73 |
Average est. | NA | 90.14 |
USDA May | 93.16 | 90.99 |
Global Production Highlights | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
U.S. | 360.25 (360.25) | 380.76 (380.76) |
Argentina | 47.00 (47.00) | 51.00 (51.00) |
Brazil | 98.50 (102.00) | 118.00 (118.00) |
South Africa | 17.00 (17.00) | 17.00 (17.00) |
Russia | 13.87 (13.87) | 14.90 (14.90) |
Ukraine | 30.30 (30.30) | 37.50 (37.50) |
China | 260.67 (260.67) | 268.00 (268.00) |
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
U.S. | 112.55 (112.55) | 119.88 (119.88) |
Argentina | 47.00 (47.00) | 52.00 (52.00) |
Brazil | 137.00 (136.00) | 144.00 (144.00) |
Paraguay | 9.90 (9.90) | 10.50 (10.50) |
China | 19.60 (19.60) | 19.00 (19.00) |
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
U.S. | 49.69 (49.69) | 51.66 (50.95) |
Argentina | 17.63 (17.63) | 20.50 (20.50) |
Australia | 33.00 (33.00) | 27.00 (27.00) |
Canada | 35.18 (35.18) | 32.00 (32.00) |
EU | 125.94 (125.94) | 137.50 (134.00) |
Russia | 85.35 (85.35) | 86.00 (85.00) |
Ukraine | 25.42 (25.42) | 29.50 (29.00) |
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2020-21 | 2021-22 |
U.S. | 14.61 (14.61) | 17.00 (17.00) |
Australia | 2.80 (2.50) | 3.90 (3.90) |
Brazil | 11.25 (11.50) | 13.25 (13.25) |
India | 28.50 (28.50) | 29.00 (29.00) |
China | 29.50 (29.50) | 26.75 (27.50) |
Pakistan | 4.50 (4.50) | 5.30 (5.30) |
U.S. Wheat Production | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
USDA | 1.898 |
Average est. | 1.892 |
USDA May | 1.872 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
USDA | 1.309 |
Average est. | 1.312 |
USDA May | 1.283 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
USDA | 771 |
Average est. | 760 |
USDA May | 731 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
USDA | 335 |
Average est. | 333 |
USDA May | 332 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
USDA | 202 |
Average est. | 216 |
USDA May | 211 |
| |