USDA forecasts prices for all food will rise 3.4% this year, up from the expected 2.3% increase last month. The monthly price increase was driven by food-at-home (grocery) prices, which are anticipated to rise 3.3%, up from the 1.3% gain forecast last month. Food-away-from-home (restaurant) prices are projected to increase 3.4%, down from 3.6% previously.
The jump in grocery prices was driven by eggs, which are projected to surge 41.1% this year, up sharply from the expected 20.3% increase forecast last month. Surging and volatile egg prices are tied to the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza, which has sharply reduced layer flocks and egg production.
USDA now forecasts meats, poultry and fish prices to increase 1.0% (2.1% January) with meats up 1.4% (0.8% January), beef and veal up 3.2% (1.5% January), pork up 1.2% (down 0.8% January). Other meats are expected to rise 0.6% (1.7% January).
Another key change was in “other foods” where prices are now seen rising 1% versus a 0.4% decline forecast in January. Other foods account for 12.8% of food prices versus 10.6% for meats, poultry and fish, 9.8% for fruits and vegetables and 8.1% for cereals and baking goods. Eggs only account for 1.3% of food prices.