Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents higher, soybeans were 7 to 11 cents higher, wheat futures were 1 to 4 cents lower and cotton was 10 to 20 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 to 5 cents higher, soybeans are 6 to 10 cents higher, wheat is mostly 4 to 9 cents lower and cotton is unchanged to 15 points lower.
USDA noted: “The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.”
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.465 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.540 billion bu. in March
— compares with 1.763 billion bu. in 2023-24
Beans: 375 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 380 million bu. in March
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2023-24
Wheat: 846 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 819 million bu. in March
— compares with 696 million bu. in 2023-24
Cotton: 5.0 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.9 million bales in March
— compares with 3.15 million bales in 2023-24
USDA cut 75 million bu. from its March corn carryover forecast in this month’s update. That’s also 45 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no adjustments to the supply side of the 2024-25 marketing year balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA cut projected feed & residual use 25 million bu. (to 5.75 billion), held food, seed & industrial use steady at 6.89 billion bu. (corn-for-ethanol steady at 5.5 billion) and raised exports 100 million bu. to 2.55 billion bushels. USDA left the national average on-farm cash corn price steady with last month at $4.35.
USDA cut 5 million bu. from its March soybean carryover estimate. That’s also 4 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased projected soybean imports 5 million bu. to 25 million. On the demand side, USDA increased crush 10 million bu. (to 2.42 billion bu.) and left exports unchanged at 1.825 billion bushels. Seed use was also cut 3 million bu. (to 72 million), which was offset by a 3-million-bu. increase in estimated residual use (to 42 million bushels). USDA left the national average on-farm cash soybean price steady with last month at $9.95.
USDA added 27 million bu. to its March wheat carryover forecast. That is also 21 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. On the supply side, USDA increased imports 10 million bu. to 150 million. On the demand side, USDA cut 15 million bu. from exports (to 820 million) and trimmed seed use 2 million bu. (to 62 million). USDA left the national average on-farm cash wheat price steady with last month at $5.50.
USDA added 100,000 bales to its March cotton carryover forecast, which is also 90,000 bales above the average pre-report trade estimate. The supply side of the balance sheet was unchanged from March. USDA cut exports 100,000 bales from March (to 10.9 million bales). USDA left the national average on-farm cash cotton price steady with last month at 63 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 287.65 MMT for 2024-25, down from 288.94 MMT in March
— compares with 314.33 MMT in 2023-24
Beans: 122.47 MMT for 2024-25, up from 121.41 MMT in March
— compares with 115.27 MMT in 2023-24
Wheat: 260.70 MMT for 2024-25, up from 260.08 MMT in March
— compares with 269.06 MMT in 2023-24
Cotton: 78.86 million bales for 2024-25, up from 78.33 million bales in March
— compares with 73.74 million bales in 2023-24
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 49.0 MMT in March
— compares with 48.21 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in March
— compares with 154.5 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina wheat: 18.54 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.50 MMT in March
— compares with 15.85 MMT in 2023-24
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.11 MMT in March
— compares with 25.96 MMT in 2023-24
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in March
— compares with 136.59 MMT in 2023-24
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in March
— compares with 32.95 MMT in 2023-24
EU wheat: 121.02 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 121.30 MMT in March
— compares with 135.38 MMT in 2023-24
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.6 MMT in March
— compares with 91.5 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 23.4 MMT in March
— compares with 23.0 MMT in 2023-24
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in March
— compares with 288.84 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in March
— compares with 51.0 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil corn: 126.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 126.0 MMT in March
— compares with 119.0 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.8 MMT in March
— compares with 32.5 MMT in 2023-24
South Africa corn: 16.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 16.0 MMT in March
— compares with 13.43 MMT in 2023-24
China cotton: 30.75 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 31.75 mil. bales in March
— compares with 27.35 million bales in 2023-24