Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were 1 to 3 cents higher, wheat futures were 2 to 6 cents lower and cotton was about 20 to 25 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn is trading unchanged to a penny higher, soybeans are 2 to 3 cents higher, wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents lower and cotton is mostly 20 to 30 points higher.
USDA included this note: The WASDE report only considers trade policies that are in effect at the time of publication. Further, unless a formal end date is specified, the report also assumes that these policies remain in place.
U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.540 billion bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 1.540 billion bu. in February
— compares with 1.763 billion bu. in 2023-24
Beans: 380 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 380 million bu. in February
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2023-24
Wheat: 819 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 794 million bu. in February
— compares with 696 million bu. in 2023-24
Cotton: 4.9 million bales for 2024-25, unchanged from 4.9 million bales in February
— compares with 3.15 million bales in 2023-24
USDA kept its corn ending stocks forecast unchanged for a second straight month. It made no changes to any of the supply/demand balance sheet categories. USDA maintained its average cash corn price projection for 2024-25 at $4.35.
USDA kept its soybean carryover projection unchanged for a second straight month. It made no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA lowered projected seed use 3 million bu. and fully offset that with a 3-million-bu. increase to residual use. Despite no change to ending stocks, USDA lowered its average cash price forecast for 2024-25 by 15 cents to $9.95.
USDA raised projected wheat ending stocks 25 million bu. from last month. It increased total supply 10 million bu. on larger projected imports. On the demand side of the balance sheet, projected exports were cut 15 million bushels. USDA lowered the 2024-25 average cash price forecast by a nickel to $5.50.
USDA kept its cotton carryover forecast unchanged this month. It made no changes to either the supply or demand side of the 2024-25 balance sheet. USDA lowered its 2024-25 average cash price forecast by 0.5 cent from last month to 63 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 288.94 MMT for 2024-25, down from 290.31 MMT in February
— compares with 313.95 MMT in 2023-24
Beans: 121.41 MMT for 2024-25, down from 124.34 MMT in February
— compares with 112.55 MMT in 2023-24
Wheat: 260.08 MMT for 2024-25, up from 257.56 MMT in February
— compares with 269.50 MMT in 2023-24
Cotton: 78.33 million bales for 2024-25, down from 78.41 million bales in February
— compares with 73.71 million bales in 2023-24
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 49.0 MMT in February
— compares with 48.21 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in February
— compares with 153.0 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina wheat: 18.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.7 MMT in February
— compares with 15.85 MMT in 2023-24
Australia wheat: 34.11 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 MMT in February
— compares with 25.96 MMT in 2023-24
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in February
— compares with 136.59 MMT in 2023-24
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in February
— compares with 32.95 MMT in 2023-24
EU wheat: 121.3 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 121.3 MMT in February
— compares with 135.1 MMT in 2023-24
Russia wheat: 81.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.5 MMT in February
— compares with 91.5 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 22.9 MMT in February
— compares with 23.0 MMT in 2023-24
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in February
— compares with 288.84 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 50.0 MMT in February
— compares with 51.0 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil corn: 126.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 126.0 MMT in February
— compares with 119.0 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine corn: 26.8 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.5 MMT in February
— compares with 32.5 MMT in 2023-24
South Africa corn: 16.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in February
— compares with 13.43 MMT in 2023-24
China cotton: 31.75 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 31.0 mil. bales in Feb.
— compares with 27.35 million bales in 2023-24