Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 2 to 5 cents higher, soybeans were 5 to 6 cents higher, wheat futures were 2 to 6 cents higher and cotton was mostly 75 to 95 cents higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn is trading a penny lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, wheat futures are fractionally lower to 2 cents higher and cotton futures are mostly 70 to 90 points higher.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.540 billion bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 1.540 billion bu. in January
— compares with 1.763 billion bu. in 2023-24
Beans: 380 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 380 million bu. in January
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2023-24
Wheat: 794 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 798 million bu. in January
— compares with 696 million bu. in 2023-24
Cotton: 4.9 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.8 million bales in January
— compares with 3.15 million bales in 2023-24
USDA left its corn ending stocks forecast unchanged at 1.540 billion bushels. Analysts expected a 14-million-bu. decline. It made no changes to the supply or demand side of the 2024-25 balance sheet. Despite no balance sheet changes, USDA raised its 2024-25 average cash price projection by a dime from last month to $4.35, though that would still be down 20 cents from last year.
USDA kept its soybean carryover projection at 380 million bushels. Analysts expected a 6-million-bu. cut. USDA made no changes to either the supply or demand side of the 2024-25 balance sheet. Despite the lack of changes, USDA lowered its 2024-25 average cash price projection by a dime from last month to $10.10, which would be down $2.30 from last year.
USDA lowered its wheat ending stocks forecast 4 million bu. from last month. Analysts expected a 1-million-bu. increase. USDA made no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, the only change was a 4-million-bu. increase to food use, which is now projected at 970 million bushels. USDA kept its 2024-25 average cash price projection at $5.55, which would be down $1.41 from last year.
USDA raised its cotton carryover forecast 100,000 bales to 4.9 million bales. Analysts expected a 10,000-bale decline. USDA made no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA cut domestic use 100,000 bales to 1.7 million bales. USDA lowered its 2024-25 average cash price projection by 1.5 cents to 63.5 cents, which would be down 12.6 cents from last year.
Global carryover
Corn: 290.31 MMT for 2024-25, down from 293.34 MMT in January
— compares with 315.81 MMT in 2023-24
Beans: 124.34 MMT for 2024-25, down from 128.37 MMT in January
— compares with 112.49 MMT in 2023-24
Wheat: 257.56 MMT for 2024-25, down from 258.82 MMT in January
— compares with 267.49 MMT in 2023-24
Cotton: 78.41 million bales for 2024-25, up from 77.91 million bales in January
— compares with 73.71 million bales in 2023-24
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 52.0 MMT in January
— compares with 48.21 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in January
— compares with 153.0 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina wheat: 17.7 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.5 MMT in January
— compares with 15.85 MMT in 2023-24
Australia wheat: 32.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 MMT in January
— compares with 25.96 MMT in 2023-24
China wheat: 140.1 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.1 MMT in January
— compares with 136.59 MMT in 2023-24
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in January
— compares with 32.95 MMT in 2023-24
EU wheat: 121.3 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 121.3 MMT in January
— compares with 135.1 MMT in 2023-24
Russia wheat: 81.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.5 MMT in January
— compares with 91.5 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine wheat: 22.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 22.9 MMT in January
— compares with 23.0 MMT in 2023-24
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 294.92 MMT in January
— compares with 288.84 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina corn: 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in January
— compares with 50.0 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil corn: 126.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in January
— compares with 122.0 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine corn: 26.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.5 MMT in January
— compares with 32.5 MMT in 2023-24
South Africa corn: 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in January
— compares with 13.4 MMT in 2023-24
China cotton: 31.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 30.0 mil. bales in January
— compares with 27.35 million bales in 2023-24