USDA released the U.S. portion of its 10-year outlook, with the complete report due to be released in February 2022. The projections reflect a composite of model results and judgment-based analyses and were prepared from August through October 2021. The projections use as a starting point the short-term forecasts from the October WASDE Report. Projections of note for the 2022-23 marketing year:
Corn: Planted acreage falls to 92.0 million acres. With harvested acres of 84.2 million and a national average yield of 181.0 bu. per acre, production would be 15.24 billion bushels. Total supply would be 16.765 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 14.830 billion bushels. That would leave ending stocks of 1.935 billion bushels. The average cash price would fall to $4.80, down 65 cents from USDA’s October projection for the current marketing year.
Soybeans: Plantings would increase to 87.5 million acres. With harvested acres of 86.7 million and a yield of 51.5 bu. per acre, production would be 4.465 billion bu. and total supply would increase to 4.805 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 4.504 billion bushels. That would lower projected ending stocks to 300 million bushels. But the average cash price is projected to fall to $10.50, down $1.85 from USDA’s October projection for the 2021-22 marketing year.
Wheat: Planted acreage rises to 49.0 million acres. With harvested acres of 40.8 million and a yield of 49.1 bu. per acre, production would climb to 2.003 billion bu. and total supply would increase to 2.703 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 2.067 billion bushels. That would leave ending stocks of 636 million bushels. The average cash price would slip to $6.50, down 20 cents from USDA’s October projection for the current marketing year.
Cotton: Plantings would increase to 12.0 million acres. With harvested acres of 9.9 million and a yield of 865 lbs. per acre, production would be 17.8 million bales and total supply would be 20.957 million bales. Total use is projected at 17.325 million bales, which would raise ending stocks to 3.7 million bales. The average cash price would drop a dime from the current year’s projection to 80.0 cents per pound.
Click here to view USDA’s full 10-year baseline projections.