USDA raised its forecasts for food price inflation in 2022 and 2023 from their September forecasts, now seeing 2022 prices for all food rising 9.5% to 10.5% (9% to 10% prior), food at home (grocery store) prices jumping 11% to 12% (10.5% to 11.5% prior) and food away from home (restaurant) prices rising 7% to 8% (6.5% to 7.5% prior).
Pork prices increased by 1.1% in September, despite high domestic pork production and low demand for U.S. pork from Asia. Pork prices are now predicted to increase between 8.5% and 9.5% in 2022.
Retail egg prices decreased 3.5% in September but were 30.5% higher than last year. The ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) reduced the U.S. egg-layer flock by almost 5 million birds in September, as well as the poultry flock to a lesser extent. USDA projects egg prices will increase between 26.5% and 27.5% this year.
Fresh vegetable prices increased by 1.7% in September following a 1.0% increase in August, reaching a 9.2% annual rise. Processed fruits and vegetables and the aggregate category of fruits and vegetables also increased by 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively. Fresh vegetables prices are now predicted to increase between 5.5% and 6.5%, processed fruits and vegetables prices are predicted to increase between 11.0% and 12.0%, and prices for the aggregate category of fruits and vegetables are predicted to increase between 7.5% and 8.5% this year.
USDA forecasts prices for sugar and sweets will increase between 9.5% and 10.5% and nonalcoholic beverages prices are predicted to rise between 10.0% and 11.0%.
While USDA still sees smaller increases in 2023, the agency upped its forecasts to all food prices to rise 3% to 4% (2.5% to 3.5% prior), grocery store prices to increase 2.5% to 3.5% (2% to 3% prior) and restaurant prices to jump 4% to 5% (3% to 4% prior).
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