USDA makes surprise cut to U.S. soybean harvest estimate, raises corn more than expected

Projected U.S. ending soybean stocks up less than expected.

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i_80_harvest_eastern_iowa.jpg

U.S. farmers will harvest a slightly smaller soybean crop than previously forecast, while the corn crop will be slightly larger than anticipated, according to USDA’s Crop Production report today. In its monthly Supply and Demand report, also released today, USDA lowered projected U.S. 2021-22 corn ending stocks while raising soybean ending stocks less than expected. The following expectations are based on surveys by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton):

2021 U.S. Production

Corn

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

USDA

15.062

177.0

Average est.

15.050

176.9

USDA Oct. est.

15.019

176.5

Soybeans

Production
(bil. bu.)

Yield
(bu. per acre)

USDA

4.425

51.2

Average est.

4.484

51.9

USDA Oct. est.

4.448

51.5

Cotton

Production
(mil. bales)

Yield
(lbs. per acre)

USDA

18.198

880

Average est.

18.040

NA

USDA Oct. est.

18.004

871

U.S. Carryover

Corn – billion bushels

2021-22

USDA

1.493

Average est.

1.480

USDA October

1.500

Soybeans – million bushels

2021-22

USDA

340

Average est.

362

USDA October

320

Wheat – million bushels

2021-22

USDA

583

Average est.

581

USDA October

580

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

USDA

3.40

Average est.

3.16

USDA October

3.20

Global Carryover

Corn – MMT

2021-22

USDA

304.42

Average est.

298.76

USDA October

301.74

Soybeans – MMT

2021-22

USDA

103.78

Average est.

100.72

USDA October

104.57

Wheat – MMT

2021-22

USDA

275.80

Average est.

280.82

USDA October

277.18

Cotton – million bales

2021-22

USDA

86.93

Average est.

86.50

USDA October

87.13