USDA now forecasts food prices will rise 6.5% in 2023 (range of 4.9% to 8.2%), down from an expected 7.5% increase last month. The cut came mostly from a lower forecast for food-at-home (grocery store) prices, which are now expected to rise 6.6% (range of 4.4% to 8.8%), down from the 7.8% jump projected last month. USDA trimmed its food-away-from-home (restaurant) forecast to 8.2% (range of 7.3% to 9.0%), down from 8.3% last month.
USDA noted retail egg prices decreased 10.9% in March 2023 following a 6.7% decline in February but remained 36.0% above March 2022 prices. Egg prices are predicted to increase 17.8% in 2023, with a prediction range of 5.1% to 32.9%. The wide forecast range reflects volatility in retail prices caused by the outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza.
USDA forecasts prices are predicted to increase for other meats (5.9%), poultry (2.8%), dairy products (4.95), fats and oils (12.8%), processed fruits and vegetables (9.9%), sugar and sweets (10.1 %), cereals and bakery products (11.7%), nonalcoholic beverages (9.9%), and other foods (9.2%).
Beef and veal prices are forecast to decrease 0.5% in 2023 (range of -6.2% to 5.8%), with pork prices predicted to decrease 2.0% (range of -6.8% to 3.3%). Fresh fruits prices are now expected to decrease 0.5% this year (range of -4.3% to 3.7%.
At the farm level, USDA forecasts cattle prices will increase 13.8% (range of 2.5% to 27.2%) and egg prices will jump 24.4% (range of -18.3% to 111.3%), while milk prices will fall 23.9% (range of -37.0% to -6.0%). USDA projects wholesale prices will rise 3.6% for beef (range of -9.3% to 19.4%). Wholesale prices are expected to decline 4.8% for pork (range of -12.9% to 4.7%), 9.8% for poultry (range of -16.8% to -1.8%) and 5.9% for dairy (range of -12.5% to 1.5%).