U.S. soybean carryover expected to double in coming WASDE

Analysts expect smaller corn and larger soybean crop estimates from USDA next Tuesday. Find more pre-report expectations here.

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October 07, 2021 02:46 PM

On average, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect corn harvested acreage to edge around 100,000 acres higher, but for USDA’s yield to dip 0.3 bu., trimming its production estimate to 14.973 billion bushels.

On soybeans, analysts expect production to rise just over 40 million bu. to 4.415 billion bu., with a rise in yields expected to more than make up for a slight cut in harvested acres.

The reports will be out at 11:00 a.m. CT on Oct. 12. The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters (Bloomberg for cotton).

Expectations for 2021 U.S. Production
Corn
	Production (bil. bu.)	Yield (bu. per acre)	Harvested acres (mil.)
Average est.	14.973	176.0	85.095
Range	14.788-15.188	174.0-178.5	84.900-85.284
USDA Sept. est.	14.996	176.3	85.085

Soybeans
	Production (bil. bu.)	Yield (bu. per acre)	Harvested acres (mil.)
Average est.	4.415	51.1	86.349
Range	4.374-4.466	50.5-51.5	85.100-86.729
USDA Sept. est.	4.374	50.6	86.436

Cotton
	Production (mil. bales)	Yield (lbs. per acre)	Harvested acres (mil.)
Average est.	18.37	NA	NA
Range	17.90-18.60	NA	NA
USDA Sept. est.	18.51	895	9.92

U.S. soybean carryover is expected to more than double to 373 million bu. after USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report revealed USDA underestimated last year’s crop. Corn carryover is also expected to climb from September, but by a much smaller, 24 million bushels. Wheat stocks are expected to slide roughly 30 million bu. from September.

Expectations for U.S. Carryover
Corn – billion bushels
	2021-22
Average est.	1.432
Range	1.238-1.568
USDA September	1.408

Soybeans – million bushels
	2021-22
Average est.	300
Range	161-373
USDA September	185

Wheat – million bushels
	2021-22
Average est.	576
Range	470-615
USDA September	615

Cotton – million bales
	2021-22
USDA	3.44
Average est.	3.16-3.75
USDA September	3.70

Expectations for Global Carryover
Corn – MMT
	2021-22
Average est.	298.76
Range	295.00-303.00
USDA September	297.63

Soybeans – MMT
	2021-22
Average est.	100.72
Range	96.00-103.00
USDA September	98.89

Wheat – MMT
	2021-22
Average est.	280.82
Range	278.00-284.50
USDA September	283.22

Cotton – million bales
	2021-22
Average est.	86.50
Range	85.18-87.30
USDA September	86.68

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