USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the March 1 U.S. hog herd at 72.86 million head, up 171,000 head (0.2%) from year-ago. The breeding herd at 6.127 million head increased 0.5% and the market hog inventory rose 0.2%. All of those categories were in line with the average pre-report trade estimates.
Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA | Average estimate |
All hogs on March 1 | 100.2 | 100.2 |
Kept for breeding | 100.5 | 100.5 |
Kept for marketing | 100.2 | 100.2 |
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Market hog inventory |
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under 50 lbs. | 99.8 | 100.6 |
50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 99.7 | 100.0 |
120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 99.9 | 99.2 |
Over 180 lbs. | 102.1 | 100.2 |
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Pig crop (Dec.-Feb.) | 100.3 | 101.2 |
Pigs per litter (Dec.-Feb.) | 100.6 | 100.5 |
Farrowings (Dec.-Feb.) | 99.7 | 100.8 |
Farrowing intentions (March-May) | 98.8 | 100.6 |
Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.) | 97.1 | 100.1 |
The winter pig crop increased 111,000 head (0.3%) versus last year, which was less than the 1.2% increase traders expected. While the number of pigs per litter rose 0.6%, farrowings dropped 0.3% whereas traders expected a 0.8% increase.
Looking forward, farmers indicated to USDA they intend to farrow slightly fewer sows through spring and summer than they did last year. March-May farrowing intentions are down 1.2%, with June-August farrowing intentions down 2.9%. Traders expected a 0.6% and 0.1% increase, respectively. But with the breeding herd 0.5% bigger than year-ago as of March 1, spring and summer farrowings may come in higher than farmers indicated.
Slaughter numbers have consistently run higher than expected through the first quarter. Based on the market hog inventory, that should end soon. While market hogs weighing over 180 lbs. are up 2.1%, the other three weight categories are down fractionally from year-ago, suggesting slaughter should run about even with last year through the third quarter.
USDA made revisions to past data through December 2022. USDA revised the Dec. 1, 2022 herd 1.28 million head higher, with a 10,000-head downward revision to the breeding herd and a 1.290-million- head increase in the number of market hogs. The Sept. 1, 2022 herd was raised 440,000 head, with all of the increase in market hogs. Summer 2022 sow farrowings were revised up by 50,000 head, which resulted in a 580,000-head jump in the pig crop to 34.096 million. Fall 2022 sow farrowings were increased 48,000 head, with the net result a 540,000-head boost to the fall pig crop.
The data could be mildly supportive to summer contracts as the market hog numbers were lighter than anticipated, though we doubt the report has much direct market on Friday.