Trade signals high degree of uncertainty regarding U.S. new-crop carryover

Find expectations for USDA’s July 12 Crop Production and WASDE reports.

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July 08, 2021 01:00 PM

USDA will update its U.S. and global balance sheets on July 12 at 11:00 a.m. CT. The following expectations are generated by survey work by Reuters (cotton numbers are from Bloomberg). Note: USDA will not issue survey-based estimates for U.S. corn, soybean and cotton crops but it will incorporate acreage estimates from the June 30 Acreage Report.

Expectations for 2021 U.S. Production
Corn
	Production (bil. bu.)	Yield (bu. per acre)
Average est.	15.115	178.82
Range	14.863-15.275	177.00-179.50
USDA June	14.990	179.50

Soybeans
	Production (bil. bu.)	Yield (bu. per acre)
Average est.	4.394	50.67
Range	4.335-4.405	50.00-50.80
USDA June	4.405	50.80

Cotton
	Production (mil. bales)	Yield (lbs. per acre)
Average est.	17.29	NA
Range	16.00-18.50	NA
USDA June	17.00	847

Expectations for U.S. Carryover
Corn – billion bushels
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	1.088	1.402
Range	1.000-1.257	1.057-1.542
USDA June	1.107	1.357

Soybeans – million bushels
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	134	148
Range	120-149	120-165
USDA June	135	155

Wheat – million bushels
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	NA	729
Range	NA	575-809
USDA June	852*	770
*set by June 1 stocks at 844 million bu.
Cotton – million bales
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	NA	3.04
Range	NA	1.95-4.50
USDA June	3.15	2.90

Expectations for Global Carryover
Corn – MMT
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	279.76	288.97
Range	276.00-284.00	284.40-295.00
USDA June	280.60	289.41

Soybeans – MMT
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	87.62	92.57
Range	86.55-88.71	91.10-93.50
USDA June	88.00	92.55

Wheat – MMT
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	293.48	295.41
Range	291.50-295.00	292.00-300.00
USDA June	293.48	296.80

Cotton – million bales
	2020-21	2021-22
Average est.	NA	89.86
Range	NA	88.40-91.97
USDA June	93.05	89.30

Brazilian Production
Soybeans – MMT
Average est.	136.76
Range	134.00-138.00
USDA June	137.00

Corn – MMT
Average est.	92.21
Range	87.90-97.00
USDA June	98.50

Argentine Production
Soybeans – MMT
Average est.	46.61
Range	45.00-48.00
USDA June	47.00

Corn – MMT
Average est.	47.46
Range	47.00-48.00
USDA June	47.00

USDA will also issue its first all-wheat production estimate on July 12, including the first survey-based forecasts for other spring wheat and durum. Given the drought conditions in U.S. spring wheat areas, there is a wide range of estimates for other spring wheat and durum crop production.

Expectations for U.S. Wheat Production
All wheat – billion bu.
Average est.	1.847
Range	1.724-1.947
USDA 2020-21	1.898

Winter wheat – billion bu.
Average est.	1.331
Range	1.256-1.372
USDA 2020-21	1.309

HRW wheat – million bu.
Average est.	786
Range	725-826
USDA 2020-21	771

SRW wheat – million bu.
Average est.	340
Range	286-365
USDA 2020-21	335

White winter wheat – million bu.
Average est.	205
Range	170-250
USDA 2020-21	202

Other spring wheat – million bu.
Average est.	459
Range	358-560
USDA 2020-21	NA

Durum wheat – million bu.
Average est.	56
Range	44-66
USDA 2020-21	NA

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