Results of the Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signaled there will be an increase in corn acres this year. But indicated a somewhat surprising marginal decline in soybean plantings. We project total corn and soybean plantings at 179.4 million acres, which would be up 3.4 million acres (1.9%) from last year. Total acres planted to the big four crops (corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton) are expected to rise 467,000 acres (2.0%) from last year.
Corn acres expected to rise nearly 4%
Our analysis of survey responses signals producers intend to plant 92.1 million acres to corn this year, up nearly 3.5 million acres (3.9%) from last year. Of those farmers who plan to shift acres, 56% indicated they would plant more corn.
Each of the six eastern Corn Belt states are expected to plant more corn than last year, with gains of 3% to 5%. In the western Corn Belt, acres are expected to rise 2% to 4%, though big gains will likely occur in the Dakotas, which were impacted by heavy prevent-plant (PP) acres in 2022. North Dakota’s corn acres are expected to rise 20%.
There was a slightly lower bias for corn acres in both Missouri and Kansas, with farmers in Kansas signaling more sorghum acres — likely due to the ongoing drought.
For states outside of the Corn Belt, producers indicated they would increase corn acres 2%.
Soybean acres expected to be virtually unchanged
Producers indicated they intend to plant 87.4 million acres to soybeans in 2023, down 100,000 acres (0.1%) from last year. Those who plan to shift acres from last year are split nearly evenly — 49% more soybeans and 51% fewer bean acres. Across the northern Corn Belt, acres expected to come back into production this year account for a good portion of the soybean acreage increases. In the Dakotas, about two-thirds of farmers adjusting bean acres from last year are planning to increase; Minnesota about 60%. Missouri farmers also indicated they intend to plant more soybeans this year.
Survey responses indicated about a 1% drop in soybean acres in Iowa, Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan. Our Ohio surveys were essentially unchanged with a 0.2% gain. Farmers intend to plant more soybeans in Arkansas, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.
Other spring wheat acres to rise 1.5%; all wheat up 8.4%
Our survey showed other spring wheat acres will rise 1.5% from last year. We had only a few survey responses from durum wheat producers, but our model suggests they will rise slightly. In total, other spring wheat and durum acres are projected to rise 1.6% to 12.7 million acres.
Spring wheat acres in the Dakotas are expected to rise 1% to 2%. Montana producers indicated they would increase spring wheat acres by more than 10% as acres that didn’t get seeded last year come back into production. Minnesota producers intend to reduce spring wheat plantings by 10% or more this year.
Using USDA’s winter wheat acreage estimate of 37.0 million acres, that would put total wheat plantings at 49.6 million acres, up 3.9 million acres (8.4%) from last year.
Sharp drop expected to cotton plantings
Our analysis of survey responses signals producers intend to plant 11.2 million acres to cotton, down nearly 2.6 million acres (18.6%) from last year. Outside of Texas, cotton acres are expected to fall 14.4%, based on our surveys.
Sorghum acres surprisingly expected to decline
Our survey projected sorghum plantings at 6.1 million acres, down 190,000 acres (3.0%) from last year. Despite entrenched drought in the Plains, producers indicated they intend to plant fewer acres to sorghum in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and South Dakota. Farmers in Kansas told us they will increase milo plantings by 7%.
Little change in ‘other’ crop acres
We didn’t receive many survey responses for acres outside of the “big four” plus sorghum. But the limited responses we received indicated farmers intend to plant slightly more acres to canola and sunflowers. We project combined plantings for those two crops at 3.935 million acres, up 29,000 acres (0.7%) from last year.
Track record: Our surveys have been close
There’s a slight tendency for our survey to underestimate corn acres and overestimate soybean plantings compared with USDA’s March intentions. Over the past 10 years, our spring acreage survey on average has been 401,000 acres too low for corn and 571,400 acres too high for soybeans. Our survey has done a very good job of pegging combined corn and soybean acres over the past decade.