Slightly bigger U.S. hog herd

USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the June 1 U.S. hog herd at 72.394 million head, up 80,000 head (0.1%) from year-ago and 586,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd was 0.4% smaller than last year but market hog inventories increased 103,000 head (0.2%).

The spring pig crop increased 111,000 head (0.3%) from last year, as a 3.3% jump in pigs per litter more than offset a 2.4% decline in sow farrowings. The spring pigs per litter number was an all-time record.

Looking forward, the smaller breeding herd and lower farrowing intentions for summer and fall suggest the increase in pig crop size is a short-term occurrence, not a change in pattern.

Based on the market hog inventory, hog slaughter should run about even with year-ago during the second half of the year, though it could inch slightly above last year’s levels from mid-summer through year-end.

USDA made the following revisions to past data: The March 1 hog population was revised up 249,000 head (0.3%), whereas the March 1 breeding herd was trimmed by 31,000 (0.5%). This put the market hog inventory at 67.014 million, up 280,000 or 0.4%. The Dec. 1, 2022 hog herd was boosted by 450,000 head (0.6%) to 74.849 million head. That reflected a 490,000-head (0.7%) revision higher to the market hog population and a 40,000-head (0.7%) cut to the breeding herd. The December revisions to the hog numbers reflected a 470,000-head (1.4%) upward revision to the Sept.-Nov. 2022 pig crop to 34.701 million head. That stemmed from a 40,000-head (1.3%) upward revision to fall 2022 farrowings.