Analysts have consistently missed the mark on pegging quarterly stocks, especially for corn, so the Sept. 30 Grain Stocks Report could have some surprises. Analysts surveyed by Reuters are calling for a 40% dive in Sept. 1 corn stocks from year-ago levels to the smallest figure for the date since 2013. Soybean stocks are expected to drop an even steeper 67% from year-ago to the lowest since Sept. 1, 2014. Those surveyed expect wheat stocks to drop 14% from year-ago to the smallest Sept. 1 figure since 2007.
Expectations for | |
Corn – billion bu. | |
Average est. for Sept. 1, 2021 | 1.155 |
Range | 0.998-1.252 |
USDA June 1, 2021 | 4.112 |
USDA Sept. 1, 2020 | 1.919 |
| |
Soybeans – million bu. | |
Average est. for Sept. 1, 2021 | 174 |
Range | 145-202 |
USDA June 1, 2021 | 767 |
USDA Sept. 1, 2020 | 525 |
| |
Wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. for Sept. 1, 2021 | 1.852 |
Range | 1.775-1.998 |
USDA June 1, 2021 | 0.844 |
USDA Sept. 1, 2020 | 2.158 |
| |
Expectations for 2020 | |
Corn – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 14.173 |
Range | 14.102-14.207 |
USDA previous | 14.182 |
| |
Soybeans – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 4.136 |
Range | 4.119-4.155 |
USDA previous | 4.135 |
The Small Grains Summary will provide USDA’s final 2021 wheat crop estimates. We anticipate USDA will cut spring wheat harvested acreage to reflect more abandonment than previously estimated. The following expectations are based on survey work by Reuters.
Expectations for | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.680 |
Range | 1.628-1.720 |
USDA August | 1.697 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.321 |
Range | 1.310-1.341 |
USDA August | 1.319 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 780 |
Range | 772-809 |
USDA August | 777 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 364 |
Range | 330-370 |
USDA August | 366 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 176 |
Range | 170-202 |
USDA August | 176 |
| |
Other spring wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 327 |
Range | 273-357 |
USDA August | 343 |
| |
Durum wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 34 |
Range | 30-38 |
USDA August | 35 |