Sept. 1 corn and soybean stocks top expectations by roughly 80 million bushels

USDA’s Sept. 1 grain stocks estimate came in 81 million bu. higher than analysts surveyed by Reuters anticipated, but at 1.236 billion bu., stocks were still a dramatic 35.6% under year-ago levels. The department also revised its June 1 corn stocks estimate slightly lower.

Soybean came in a similar 82 million bu. higher than the market anticipated, but again stocks were less than half of year-ago levels. USDA’s June 1 soybean stocks estimate edged slightly higher.

On the other hand, USDA’s quarterly wheat stocks estimate was 72 million bu. lighter than analysts anticipated and 17.5% under year-ago levels.

USDA also made larger adjustments to its 2020 corn and soybean production estimates in the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report than the market anticipated. It lowered its corn crop estimate by 71 million bu. to 14.111 billion bu., whereas analysts expected a 9 million bu. cut, on average. Its 2020 soybean crop estimate climbed 81 million bu. to 4.216 billion bu.; analysts surveyed by Reuters had expected just a 1 million bu. increase.

USDA’s final all wheat production estimate came in 34 million bu. lighter than expected at 1.646 billion bu., which was a 51 million bu. cut from USDA’s August production estimate. A larger than expected cut to its winter wheat crop estimate more than making up for a bit larger-than-expected production estimates for spring wheat and durum.