For the 17th time in the past 18 months, the overall Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) sank below the 50.0 reading in February, according to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.
Overall: The region’s overall reading for February slumped to a weak 38.0 from 42.3 in January. The index ranges between 0 and 100, with a reading of 50.0 representing growth neutral.
Only 9% of bankers expect positive outcomes for rural mainstreet from President Trump’s tariff actions.
“The economic outlook for grain farmers remained weak for 2025. However, grain prices have recently improved, but not enough for profitability for many producers. On the other hand, regional livestock producers continue to experience solid prices with only 9.3% of bankers expecting negative cash flow for ranchers in 2025,” says Dr. Ernie Goss, Creighton University’, who conducts the survey.
Farming and ranch land prices: For the 8th time in the past nine months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral. The region’s farmland price index fell to 40.0, its lowest level since October 2024, and down from 42.0 in January. “Elevated interest rates and higher input costs, along with below breakeven prices for a high share of grain farmers in the region, have put downward pressure on ag land prices,” states Goss.
This month, bank CEOs were asked to project 2025 grain and livestock net cash flow or income. On average, 70.8% of bankers expect livestock ranchers to experience positive cash flow or net income for the year. On the other hand, only 54.2% of bank CEOs forecast grain farmers to breakeven or earn a profit for 2025.
Farm equipment sales: The farm equipment sales index rose to a very weak 18.2 from January’s 17.4. “This is the 19th straight month that the index has fallen below growth neutral. High input prices, tighter credit conditions and weak farm grain prices are having a negative impact on the purchases of farm equipment,” says Goss.
Confidence: Rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth for their area over the next six months. The February confidence index sank to 40.0 from January’s 42.3. “Weak grain prices and negative farm cash flows, combined with downturns in farm equipment sales over the past several months, continued to push banker confidence below growth neutral,” observes Goss.
The survey represents an early snapshot of the economy of rural agriculturally- and energy-dependent portions of the nation. The Rural Mainstreet Index is a unique index that covers 10 regional states, focusing on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. The index provides the most current real-time analysis of the rural economy.