Observations from Day 3 of the eastern leg of Crop Tour.Eastern Tour – Day 3
My route dead headed north out of Bloomington to Toluca. From there we headed west and eventually north, sampling fields in crop districts 4 (central) and 1 (northwest) in Illinois. Our average yield was 209.1 bu. per acre, with a range of 142.8 bu. to 260.5 bushels. Six of our 10 samples were above 200 bu., with the only real clunker the low one of the day. Despite the strong average yield, there was more variability in fields than I expected. Ear counts ranged from 92 to 114. Grain length ranged from 5.83 to 8.8 inches. There’s some spectacular corn in Illinois, but some of the crop left me wanting for more along my route given everything we heard about the state’s corn crop ahead of Crop Tour. With that said, the overall Crop Tour results for Illinois were spectacular.
Pod counts in a 3’x3’ square averaged 1165 along my route, with a range from 673 to 1570. Soybean pod counts were rather consistent and the crop was generally clean, though I didn’t come away overly impressed with the crop along my route. The overall number would suggest others found much better pod counts than my route.
Soil moisture along my route was adequate to ample for most areas, though some were drier and will need a rain or two to maximize yield potential. Both corn and soybeans have done enough work at this point to produce big yields. It’s now just a matter of getting them to the finish line and the bushels in the bin.
Final Day 3 observations
USDA estimated the corn yield would increase 9.2% from last year, while the soybean yield is expected to climb 4.8%.
Our corn yield in Illinois was a record 204.14 bu. per acre, up 5.4% versus what we found on Crop Tour last year and 5.5% above the three-year average. Ear counts were up 2.0% from last year and 2.6% from the three-year average. Grain length increased 4.0% from last year and 4.2% from the three-year average. More ears that are longer makes a big yield.
On average since 2001, Crop Tour has been 3.9 bu. below USDA’s final yield. If you add the average “miss” to this year’s Crop Tour figure, it would be 208 bu. per acre. But over the past 10 years, our average miss in Illinois has been 10.0 bushels. And in years when Illinois has a yield above 200 bu. per acre, our average miss is 11.9 bu. per acre. In years that had a record yield in Illinois, our average miss was 20.3 bu. per acre. Adding those figures to our Illinois Crop Tour yield would be 214.1 bu., 216 bu. and 224.4 bu., respectively. A record yield seems likely and USDA’s estimate of 225 bu. per acre appears possible if the crop finishes strong.
Soybean pod counts in a 3’x 3’ square in Illinois averaged 1419.11, up 11.7% from last year’s Tour results. The soil moisture rating jumped 22.4% from last year and was 15.9% above the three-year average. More pods and ample soil moisture set the Illinois soybean crop up for a strong finish.