Refinitiv Commodities Research (RCR) says trade flow data signals China will likely import 11.6 MMT of soybeans during June, which would be an all-time monthly high. The arrival of nearly 11.4 MMT of Brazilian beans are expected to drive up the tally. For the first half of the year, Refinitiv projects China will import 46.9 MMT of soybeans, a 4.5-MMT (10.6%) rise from year-ago.
Chinese trade data out overnight shows the country has imported 21.53 MMT of soybeans from the U.S. five months into the calendar year, along with 15.66 MMT of soybeans from Brazil, up 240% and down 28.9% from year-ago, respectively.
Looking ahead, the research division says, “After taking into account rapid imports in the first six months and currently fast deliveries of Brazilian soybeans, China’s demand for the U.S. new-crop soybeans that will be harvested in late August/early September will likely be much weaker than a year ago.” It also points out crush margins are at their lowest since early 2019.