Results of the annual Pro Farmer/Doane planting intentions survey signaled there will be a notable shift from soybean to corn acres this year. The combined total of those two major crops is expected to increase slightly. We project total corn and soybean plantings at 178.8 million acres, which would be up 1.11 acres (0.6%) from last year. Total acres planted to the big four crops (corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton) are expected to be down roughly 1 million acres at 233.9 million.
Corn acres expected to increase 3.5%
Our analysis of survey responses signals producers intend to plant 93.75 million acres to corn this year, up nearly 3.2 million acres (3.5%) from last year. Of those farmers who plan to shift acres, 60% indicated they would plant more corn. For all surveys, 36% said their corn acres would increase, 24% would decrease and 40% would be unchanged from last year.
Acres are expected to rise in most states and all but one key state, South Dakota. Acres are seen as increasing 4% or more in Iowa, Nebraska and North Dakota.
Each of the regions indicated higher corn plantings, with cotton states signaling the largest increase at 3.7%.
Soybean acres expected to decline 2.4%
Producers indicate they intend to plant 85.00 million acres to soybeans in 2025, down 2.05 million acres (2.4%) from last year. Of those shifting acres from last year, 57% indicated they would plant fewer soybeans. For all surveys, 36% said their soybean acres would decline, 27% would increase and 37% would be unchanged from last year.
Of the top nine producing soybean states, six are seen decreasing plantings. Soybean acres are projected falling an average of 4% among states indicating declines. The states noting higher plantings are expecting modest increases.
Every region except the Northern Plains is expected to see a decline in bean acres from last year. Part of this can be attributed to prevented-plant acres coming back into production, not necessarily a switch from another crop. Declines in anticipated soybean plantings in cotton states are the greatest at 3.9%. There is an uptick in corn plantings as well as minor crop plantings in southern states, drawing from potential soybean acres.
South Dakota, Ohio and Minnesota are the only Midwestern states to indicate higher soybean acres.
Other spring wheat and durum acres to decline
Spring wheat seedings as a whole are expected to decline 590,000 acres (4.6%) to 12.1 million acres. Our survey showed producers in the Northern Plains will favor durum over other spring wheat.
Other spring wheat acres are projected to decline, which is not overly surprising given current prices. Producers indicated they would switch to alternative crops. Durum on the other hand showed a notable increase, although we had a small sample size. We expect durum seedings to be roughly steady with year- ago.
Our survey indicated winter wheat acres down modestly, contrary to USDA’s winter wheat seedings estimate in January. Acres in historical winter wheat areas come down while Midwest states signaled an uptick. Relatively longer growing seasons and favorable insurance regulations have encouraged Midwesterners to double crop wheat and soybeans.
Total wheat acres are projected at 45.4 million, down 680,000 acres (1.5%) from last year.
Notable decline in cotton plantings
Our analysis of survey responses signals producers intend to plant 9.75 million acres to cotton this year, down 1.432 million acres (12.8%) from 2024. Our survey lined up relatively closely with the National Cotton Council’s estimate of 9.6 million acres.
Cotton plantings are expected to decline in nearly every state as producers intend to plant alternative crops due to price. However, many producers stated their final cotton acreage will be rainfall-dependent, especially in Texas.
Sorghum acres expected to decline
Our survey projected sorghum plantings at 6.15 million acres, which would be down 150,000 acres (2.4%) from last year. Chinese demand for U.S. sorghum has eroded, lowering prices and discouraging plantings.
A limited look at ‘other’ crop acres
The limited responses we received on the non-major crops indicated farmers favoring sunflowers over canola. Edible bean seedings are expected to rise as well.
In the South, rice acres are seen rising, likely as an alternative to cotton.
Barley, hay, sugarbeet acres are all seen as nearly steady.