Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 6 to 7 cents lower, winter wheat futures were narrowly mixed, spring wheat futures were mostly 11 to 12 cents higher and cotton futures were mostly 70 to 110 points higher.
In reaction to the reports, corn futures are trading around a nickel higher, soybeans are 25-plus cents higher, wheat futures are 6 to 9 cents higher and cotton futures are 80 to 125 points higher.
Crop production
Corn: 15.062 billion bu.; trade expected 15.050 billion bu.
— compares to 15.019 billion bu. projected in October
Beans: 4.425 billion bu.; trade expected 4.484 billion bu.
— compares to 4.448 billion bu. projected in October
Cotton: 18.198 million bales; trade expected 18.040 million bales
— compares to 18.004 million bales projected in October
USDA raised its corn crop estimate by 43 million bu. from last month, which was 12 million bu. more than traders expected based on the average pre-report estimate, and the second largest crop on record. USDA increased the yield by 0.5 bu. to 177.0 bu. per acre, which would be a record. It left harvested area unchanged at 85.085 million acres.
Record estimates record corn yields in California, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kentucky, Michigan,New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania.
Corn yields are estimated higher than last month in Michigan (up 4 bu. to 175 bu. per acre), Minnesota (up 8 bu. to 186 bu.), Nebraska (up 1 bu. to 191 bu.), North Dakota (up 1 bu. to 108 bu.) and South Dakota (up 4 bu. to 137 bu.). USDA left its yield estimate unchanged in Iowa (201 bu.), Ohio (188 bu.) and Wisconsin (172 bu.). USDA cut its yield from last month in Illinois (down 3 bu. to 207 bu.), Indiana (down 5 bu. to 189 bu.), Kansas (down 1 bu. to 139 bu.) and Missouri (down 4 bu. to 160 bu.).
USDA cut its soybean crop estimate by 23 million bu. from last month, whereas traders expected a 36-million-bu. increase. It lowered the yield by 0.3 bu. to 51.2 bu. per acre and left harvested acres unchanged at 86.436 million acres. Both production and yield would be the second highest on record.
USDA estimates record soybean yields in Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Maryland, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee and Virginia.
Soybean yields are estimated lower than last month in Indiana (down 3 bu. to 57 bu. per acre), Iowa (down 1 bu. to 60 bu.), Kansas (down 1 bu. to 41 bu.) and Ohio (down 2 bu. to 56 bu.). USDA left its yield estimate unchanged in Arkansas (50 bu.), Illinois (64 bu.), Michigan (50 bu.), Minnesota (49 bu.), Missouri (50 bu.), North Dakota (26 bu.) and Wisconsin (54 bu.). USDA raised its yield in Nebraska (up 1 to 62 bu.) and South Dakota (up 1 bu. to 41 bu.).
USDA raised its cotton crop estimate by 194,000 bales from last month, which was 158,000 bales more than traders expected. USDA increased its yield by 9 lbs. to 880 lbs. per. It left harvested area unchanged at 9.922 million acres.
USDA raised its Texas cotton yield by 9 lbs. and its Georgia yield by 21 lbs. per acre.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.493 billion bu. for 2021-22; down from 1.500 billion bu. in October
Beans: 340 million bu. for 2021-22; up from 320 million bu. in October
Wheat: 583 million bu. for 2021-22; up from 580 million bu. in October
Cotton: 3.4 million bales for 2021-22; up from 3.20 million bales in October
Projected 2021-22 corn carryover is down 7 million bu. from last month but is 13 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies of corn for the 2021-22 marketing year are up 43 million bu. from last month due to the increase in the corn crop estimate. Total use is up 50 million bu. from last month with all of the increase in projected food, seed & industrial use, which now stands at 6.68 billion bushels. (All of the FSI increase was to corn-for-ethanol use, which is now put at 5.25 billion bushels.) Estimated corn exports were unchanged at 2.5 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $5.45, unchanged from last month.
Soybean carryover is up 20 million bu. from last month but is 22 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies of soybeans for the 2021-22 marketing year are down 23 million bu. from last month due to the smaller bean crop estimate. Total use was cut 43 million bu. from last month. USDA held estimated crush at 2.19 billion bu. but cut the export forecast by 40 million bu. from last month to 2.05 billion bushels. USDA also put estimated seed use at 102 million bu., down 2 million bu. from last month. USDA projects the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $12.10, down a quarter from last month.
Wheat carryover is up 3 million bu. from last month and is 2 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut 10 million bu. from total supplies with imports down that amount from last month at 115 million bushels. On the demand-side of the balance sheet, USDA cut total use 13 million bushels. Food use is down 2 million bu. from last month to 962 million bu.; seed use was increased 4 million bu. to 66 million bu.; feed & residual use is unchanged at 135 million bu.; and exports were cut 15 million bu. to 860 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $6.90, up 20 cents from last month.
Estimated cotton carryover is up 200,000 bales from last month. USDA added 190,000 bales to total supplies due to the increase in the cotton crop estimate. Total demand is unchanged from last month at 18 million bales, although unaccounted use was cut 10,000 bales to -50,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 90 cents, unchanged from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 304.42 MMT for 2021-22; up from 301.74 MMT in October
— compares with 291.87 MMT in 2020-21
Beans: 103.78 MMT for 2021-22; down from 104.57 MMT in October
— compares with 100.11 MMT in 2020-21
Wheat: 275.87 MMT for 2021-22; down from 277.18 MMT in October
— compares with 287.95 MMT in 2020-21
Cotton: 86.93 million bales for 2021-22; down from 87.13 million bales in October
— compares with 89.28 million bales in 2020-21
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 51.0 MMT in October
— compares with 46.2 MMT in 2020-21
Brazil beans: 144.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 144.0 MMT in October
— compares with 138.0 MMT in 2020-21
Argentina wheat: 20.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 20.00 MMT in October
— compares with 17.65 MMT in 2020-21
Australia wheat: 31.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 31.5 MMT in October
— compares with 33.0 MMT in 2020-21
China wheat: 136.9 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 136.9 MMT in October
— compares with 134.25 MMT in 2020-21
Canada wheat: 21.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 21.0 MMT in October
— compares with 35.18 MMT in 2020-21
EU wheat: 138.4 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 139.40 MMT in October
— compares with 126.01 MMT in 2020-21
Russia wheat: 74.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 72.50 MMT in October
— compares with 85.35 MMT in 2020-21
Ukraine wheat: 33.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 33.0 MMT in October
— compares with 25.42 MMT in 2020-21
China corn: 273.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 273.0 MMT in October
— compares with 260.67 MMT in 2020-21
Argentina corn: 54.5 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 53.0 MMT in October
— compares with 50.5 MMT in 2020-21
Brazil corn: 118.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 118.0 MMT in October
— compares with 86.0 MMT in 2020-21
Ukraine corn: 38.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 38.0 MMT in October
— compares with 30.3 MMT in 2020-21
South Africa corn: 17.0 MMT for 2021-22; compares with 17.0 MMT in October
— compares with 16.9 MMT in 2020-21
China cotton: 26.75 million bales for 2021-22; compares with 26.75 million bales in October
— compares with 29.50 million bales in 2020-21