Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading around 4 cents lower, soybeans were mostly 3 to 5 cents higher, wheat futures were 5 to 10 cents lower and cotton was around 50 points higher.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are mostly 3 to 5 cents lower, wheat futures are 10 to 15 cents lower and cotton is around 200 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 13.930 billion bu.; trade expected 13.887 billion bu.
— compares with 13.895 billion bu. in October; 15.074 billion bu. in 2021
Beans: 4.346 billion bu.; trade expected 4.315 billion bu.
— compares with 4.313 billion bu. in October; 4.465 billion bu. in 2021
Cotton: 14.031 million bales; trade expected 13.620 million bales
— compares with 13.812 million bales in October; 17.52 million bales in 2021
USDA raised its corn crop estimate 35 million bu. from last month, whereas traders expected an 8-million-bu. reduction. USDA raised its yield estimate by 0.4 bu. to 172.3 bu. per acre and left harvested area at 80.844 million acres. Record yields are forecast in California, Illinois, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.
In the top 12 production states, USDA raised its yield estimate in Illinois (up 5 bu. to 215 bu. per acre), Indiana (up 4 bu. to 191 bu.), Iowa (up 2 bu. to 202 bu.), Minnesota (up 1 bu. to 191 bu.), Missouri (up 3 bu. to 154 bu.) and North Dakota (up 2 bu. to 143 bu.). USDA left its yield unchanged in Kansas (115 bu.) and Wisconsin (182 bu.). USDA cut its yield estimate in Michigan (down 2 bu. to 164 bu.), Nebraska (down 4 bu. to 168 bu.), Ohio (down 1 bu. to 186 bu.) and South Dakota (down 5 bu. to 130 bu.).
USDA raised its soybean crop estimate 33 million bu. from October, which was 31 million bu. more than traders expected. USDA raised its yield estimate 0.4 bu. to 50.2 bu. per acre. It left harvested area at 86.631 million acres. Record yields are forecast in Arkansas, Mississippi and South Carolina.
In the top 13 production states, USDA raised its yield estimate in Iowa (up 1 bu. to 59 bu. per acre), Missouri (up 3 bu. to 48 bu.), Nebraska (up 1 bu. to 50 bu.) and North Dakota (up 1 bu. to 36 bu.). USDA left its yield estimate unchanged in Arkansas (53 bu.), Illinois (64 bu.), Indiana (59 bu.), Kansas (28 bu.), Michigan (46 bu.), Minnesota (50 bu.), Ohio (55 bu.) and Wisconsin (54 bu.). USDA lowered its yield estimate in South Dakota (down 1 bu. to 39 bu.).
USDA raised its cotton crop estimate 219,000 bales from last month, whereas traders expected a 190,000-bale reduction. USDA raised its yield 13 lbs. to 855 lbs. per acre and left harvested area unchanged at 7.876 million acres. USDA cut its Texas yield 19 lbs. to 635 lbs. per acre and raised its Georgia yield 38 lbs. to 938 lbs. per acre.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.182 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.172 billion bu. in October
— compares with 1.377 billion bu. in 2021-22
Beans: 220 million bu. for 2022-23; up from 200 million bu. in October
— compares with 274 million bu. in 2021-22
Wheat: 571 million bu. for 2022-23; down from 576 million bu. in October
— compares with 669 million bu. in 2021-22
Cotton: 3.0 million bales for 2022-23; up from 2.8 million bales in October
— compares with ??? million bales in 2021-22
USDA raised its 2022-23 corn carryover projection 10 million bu. from last month but was 25 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies for the 2022-23 marketing year by 35 million bu. reflecting the increase to the 2022 corn crop estimate. On the demand side, USDA increased total use 25 million bu. with feed and residual use up by that amount to 5.3 billion bushels. All other demand forecasts were unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2022-23 at $6.80, unchanged from October.
USDA increased its 2022-23 soybean carryover projection 20 million bu. from last month and was 8 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 32 million bu. due to the bigger bean crop estimate. On the demand side, USDA increased total use 12 million bu. from last month. Crush was raised 10 million bu. to 2.245 billion bu. and residual use was increased 2 million bu. to 22 million. All other usage estimates were unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2022-23 at $14.00, unchanged from October.
USDA’s 2022-23 wheat carryover projection was cut 5 million bu. from last month and was 7 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA left total supplies unchanged from last month. It increased food use by 7 million bu. and cut seed use 2 million bu. to account for the change to carryover. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $9.20, unchanged from October.
USDA raised its 2022-23 cotton carryover projection 200,000 bales from last month, which was 270,000 bales above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 220,000 bales due to the increase in the cotton crop estimate. The only change on the demand side of the balance sheet was a 20,000-bale increase in unaccounted use (to -10,000 bales). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 85 cents, down a nickel from October.
Global carryover
Corn: 300.76 MMT for 2022-23; down from 301.19 MMT in October
— Compares with 307.68 MMT in 2021-22
Beans: 102.17 MMT for 2022-23; up from 100.52 MMT in October
— Compares with 94.67 MMT in 2021-22
Wheat: 267.82 MMT for 2022-23; up from 267.54 MMT in October
— Compares with 276.31 MMT in 2021-22
Cotton: 87.27 million bales for 2022-23; down from 87.87 million bales in October
— Compares with 85.64 million bales in 2021-22
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 51.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 43.9 MMT in 2021-22
Brazil beans: 152.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 152.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 127.0 MMT in 2021-22
Argentina wheat: 15.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 17.5 MMT in October
— Compares with 22.15 MMT in 2021-22
Australia wheat: 34.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 33.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 36.35 MMT in 2021-22
China wheat: 138.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 138.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 136.95 MMT in 2021-22
Canada wheat: 35.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 35.0 MMT in September
— Compares with 22.3 MMT in 2021-22
EU wheat: 134.30 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 134.75 MMT in October
— Compares with 138.29 MMT in 2021-22
Russia wheat: 91.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 91.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 75.16 MMT in 2021-22
Ukraine wheat: 20.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 20.5 MMT in October
— Compares with 33.01 MMT in 2021-22
China corn: 274.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 274.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 272.55 MMT in 2021-22
Argentina corn: 55.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 55.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 51.5 MMT in 2021-22
Brazil corn: 126.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 126.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 116.0 MMT in 2021-22for 2022-23
Ukraine corn: 31.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 31.5 MMT in October
— Compares with 42.13 MMT in 2021-22
South Africa corn: 16.7 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 17.3 MMT in October
— Compares with 16.3 MMT in 2021-22
China cotton: 28.0 million bales for 2022-23; compares with 28.0 MMT in October
— Compares with 26.8 million bales in 2021-22