Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans were mostly 3 to 7 cents higher, SRW wheat was 5 to 8 cents higher, HRW wheat was mixed, HRS wheat was 3 to 4 cents higher and cotton futures were 55 to 80 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 2 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are mostly 1 to 3 cents higher, wheat futures are mostly 7 to 11 cents higher and cotton futures are 80 to 100 points lower.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.267 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.242 billion bu. in January
Beans: 225 million bu. for 2022-23; up from 210 million bu. in January
Wheat: 568 million bu. for 2022-23; up from 567 million bu. in January
Cotton: 4.3 million bales for 2022-23; up from 4.2 million bales in January
USDA raised its 2022-23 corn ending stocks forecast 25 million bu. from last month, which was in line with the average pre-report estimate. USDA cut food, seed and industrial use 25 million bu., with all of the decline being in corn-for-ethanol consumption (now projected at 5.25 billion bu.). USDA left its corn export forecast unchanged at 1.925 billion bushels. USDA kept its national average on-farm cash price forecast at $6.70, up 70 cents from 2021-22.
USDA raised its soybean ending stocks forecast 15 million bu. from last month, whereas traders expected a 1-million-bu. increase. The only change was a 15-million-bu. reduction to crush that is now projected at 2.230 billion bu., which would still be a record. USDA left the soybean export forecast at 1.99 billion bushels. Despite the bigger carryover forecast, USDA raised its 2022-23 national average on-farm cash price projection by a dime from last month to $14.30, which would be up $1.00 from last year.
USDA raised its wheat ending stocks forecast 1 million bu. from last month, which was a little less than traders expected. USDA cut food use 2 million bu. and increased projected seed use 1 million bushels. USDA lowered its 2022-23 national average on-farm cash price projection by a dime from last month to $9.00, though that would still be up $1.37 from last year.
USDA raised its cotton ending stocks projection 100,000 bales from last month, whereas traders expected about that much of a decline. The only change USDA made was a 100,000-bale cut to projected domestic use. The export forecast remained at 12 million bales. USDA kept its 2022-23 average cash price forecast at 83.0 cents, which would be down 8.4 cents from last year.
Global carryover
Corn: 295.28 MMT for 2022-23; down from 296.42 MMT in January
— compares with 306.28 MMT in 2021-22
Beans: 102.03 MMT for 2022-23; down from 103.52 MMT in January
— compares with 98.83 MMT in 2021-22
Wheat: 269.34 MMT for 2022-23; up from 268.39 MMT in January
— compares with 276.70 MMT in 2021-22
Cotton: 89.08 million bales for 2022-23; down from 89.93 million bales in January
— compares with 85.24 million bales in 2021-22
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 41.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 45.5 MMT in January
— compares with 43.9 MMT in 2021-22
Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 153.0 MMT in January
— compares with 129.5 MMT in 2021-22
Argentina wheat: 12.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 12.5 MMT in January
— compares with 22.15 MMT in 2021-22
Australia wheat: 38.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 36.6 MMT in January
— compares with 36.24 MMT in 2021-22
China wheat: 137.72 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 137.72 MMT in January
— compares with 136.95 MMT in 2021-22
Canada wheat: 33.82 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 33.82 MMT in January
— compares with 22.42 MMT in 2021-22
EU wheat: 134.70 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 134.70 MMT in January
— compares with 138.22 MMT in 2021-22
Russia wheat: 92.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 91.0 MMT in January
— compares with 75.16 MMT in 2021-22
Ukraine wheat: 21.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 21.0 MMT in January
— compares with 33.01 MMT in 2021-22
China corn: 277.2 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 277.2 MMT in January
— compares with 272.55 MMT in 2021-22
Argentina corn: 47.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 52.0 MMT in January
— compares with 49.5 MMT in 2021-22
Brazil corn: 125.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 125.0 MMT in January
— compares with 116.0 MMT in 2021-22
Ukraine corn: 27.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 27.0 MMT in January
— compares with 42.13 MMT in 2021-22
South Africa corn: 16.7 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 16.7 MMT in January
— compares with 16.1 MMT in 2021-22
China cotton: 28.5 million bales for 2022-23; compares with 28.0 million bales in January
— compares with 26.8 million bales in 2021-22