Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading 3 to 5 cents higher, soybeans were 1 to 2 cents lower, wheat futures were 2 to 5 cents lower and cotton was around 100 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading steady to a penny higher, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents lower, winter wheat is 6 to 8 cents lower, spring wheat is 2 to 5 cents lower and cotton futures are around 50 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Cotton: 14.242 million bales; trade expected 13.960 million bales
— compares with 14.031 million bales in November; 17.52 million bales in 2021
USDA raised its cotton crop estimate 211,000 bales from last month, whereas traders expected a 71,000-bale decrease. USDA raised its all-cotton yield 13 lbs. to 868 lbs. per acre and kept harvested area at 7.876 million acres.
USDA kept the Texas cotton yield estimate at 635 lbs. and the Georgia yield at 938 lbs. per acre.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.257 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.182 billion bu. in November
— compares with 1.377 billion bu. in 2021-22
Beans: 220 million bu. for 2022-23; unchanged from 220 million bu. in November
— compares with 274 million bu. in 2021-22
Wheat: 571 million bu. for 2022-23; unchanged from 571 million bu. in November
— compares with 669 million bu. in 2021-22
Cotton: 3.5 million bales for 2022-23; up from 3.0 million bales in November
— compares with 3.75 million bales in 2021-22
USDA increased projected corn carryover 75 million bu. from last month to 1.257 billion bushels. That was 20 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. As expected, total corn supplies for 2022-23 were unchanged from last month. USDA cut 75 million bu. from expected corn exports (to 2.075 billion) to drive carryover higher. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $6.70, down a dime from last month.
USDA made no change to the supply- or demand-side of the balance sheet for soybeans, leaving projected carryover at 220 million bushels. That was 18 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. The national average on-farm cash soybean price was unchanged from last month at $14.00.
In the soybean oil balance sheet, production was unchanged from last month, but total supplies were reduced due to lower bean oil imports. Soybean oil domestic use was also adjusted down 50 million lbs. with a 200-million-lb. cut to expected biofuel use partially offset by an increase in food, feed & other industrial use.
USDA made no change to the supply- or demand-side of the balance sheet for wheat, leaving estimated carryover at 571 million bushels. That was 5 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. The national average on-farm cash wheat price is down a dime from last month at $9.10.
Cotton carryover was raised 500,000 bales from last month and was 380,000 bales above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 210,000 bales from last month by increasing the crop estimate. Expected domestic use was cut 100,000 bales (to 2.2 million) and estimated exports were cut 250,000 bales (to 12.25 million). Those cuts were partially offset by a 60,000-bale increase in unaccounted use (to 50,000 bales). USDA left the national average on-farm cash cotton price unchanged from last month at 85.0 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 298.40 MMT for 2022-23; down from 300.76 MMT in November
— Compares with 307.09 MMT in 2021-22
Beans: 102.71 MMT for 2022-23; up from 102.17 MMT in November
— Compares with 95.59 MMT in 2021-22
Wheat: 267.33 MMT for 2022-23; down from 267.82 MMT in November
— Compares with 276.31 MMT in 2021-22
Cotton: 89.56 million bales for 2022-23; up from 87.27 million bales in November
— Compares with 85.44 million bales in 2021-22
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 49.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 49.5 MMT in November
— Compares with 43.9 MMT in 2021-22
Brazil beans: 152.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 152.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 127.0 MMT in 2021-22
Argentina wheat: 12.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 15.5 MMT in November
— Compares with 22.15 MMT in 2021-22
Australia wheat: 36.6 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 34.5 MMT in November
— Compares with 36.35 MMT in 2021-22
China wheat: 138.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 138.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 136.95 MMT in 2021-22
Canada wheat: 33.82 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 35.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 22.3 MMT in 2021-22
EU wheat: 134.30 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 134.30 MMT in November
— Compares with 138.22 MMT in 2021-22
Russia wheat: 91.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 91.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 75.16 MMT in 2021-22
Ukraine wheat: 20.5 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 20.5 MMT in November
— Compares with 33.01 MMT in 2021-22
China corn: 274.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 274.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 272.55 MMT in 2021-22
Argentina corn: 55.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 55.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 51.5 MMT in 2021-22
Brazil corn: 126.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 126.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 116.0 MMT in 2021-22for 2022-23
Ukraine corn: 27.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 31.5 MMT in November
— Compares with 42.13 MMT in 2021-22
South Africa corn: 16.7 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 16.7 MMT in November
— Compares with 16.1 MMT in 2021-22
China cotton: 28.0 million bales for 2022-23; compares with 28.0 MMT in November
— Compares with 26.8 million bales in 2021-22