Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were mostly a nickel higher, winter wheat markets were 1 to 3 cents higher, spring wheat was narrowly mixed and cotton was around 40 points lower.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn is trading mostly 4 cents higher, soybeans are 3 cents higher, winter wheat is 2 to 4 cents higher, spring wheat is around a penny higher and cotton is 60 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Cotton: 14.255 million bales; trade expected 14.09 million bales
— compares to 14.191 million bales in November; 12.066 million bales in 2023
USDA raised its cotton production estimate 64,000 bales from last month. Analysts expected USDA to cut production 101,000 bales. The average yield increased 3 lbs. to 792 lbs. per acre, while harvested area was unchanged at 8.635 million acres.
USDA cut the Texas yield 38 lbs. to 515 lbs. per acre and raised the Georgia yield 66 lbs. to 881 lbs. per acre.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.738 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.938 billion bu. in November
— compares with 1.760 billion bu. in 2023-24
Beans: 470 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 470 million bu. in November
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2023-24
Wheat: 795 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 815 million bu. in November
— compares with 696 million bu. in 2023-24
Cotton: 4.4 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.3 million bales in November
— compares with 3.15 million bales in 2023-24
USDA cut corn ending stocks 200 million bu. from last month. It made no changes to supply. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA raised food, seed and industrial use 50 million bu. with all of the increase to projected ethanol use (now forecast at 5.5 billion bu.) and hiked exports 150 million bu. to 2.475 billion bushels. Despite the sharp cut to ending stocks, USDA kept its average cash price projection at $4.10.
USDA kept its soybean ending stocks forecast unchanged, making no changes to the 2024-25 balance sheet. Despite the lack of change, USDA cut its 2024-25 average cash price projection by 60 cents to $10.20.
USDA lowered projected wheat ending stocks 20 million bu. from last month. Total supply increased 5 million bu. on an increase to projected imports. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA raised exports 25 million bu. to 850 million bushels. USDA kept the projected average cash price for 2024-25 at $5.60.
USDA raised cotton ending stocks 100,000 bales from last month. Total supply increased 60,000 bales amid the bigger crop estimate. The only change to use was a 40,000-bale reduction in unaccounted use to -90,000 bales. USDA maintained its average cash price projection at 66 cents per lbs.
Global carryover
Corn: 296.44 MMT for 2024-25, down from 304.14 MMT in November
— compares with 316.22 MMT in 2023-24
Beans: 131.87 MMT for 2024-25, up from 131.71 MMT in November
— compares with 112.16 MMT in 2023-24
Wheat: 257.88 MMT for 2024-25, up from 257.57 MMT in November
— compares with 267.41 MMT in 2023-24
Cotton: 76.02 million bales for 2024-25, up from 75.75 million bales in November
— compares with 74.16 million bales in 2023-24
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 52.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in November
— compares with 48.21 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in November
— compares with 153.0 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina wheat: 17.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.5 MMT in November
— compares with 15.85 MMT in 2023-24
Australia wheat: 32.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 MMT in November
— compares with 25.96 MMT in 2023-24
China wheat: 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in November
— compares with 136.59 MMT in 2023-24
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.0 MMT in November
— compares with 32.95 MMT in 2023-24
EU wheat: 121.3 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 122.6 MMT in November
— compares with 135.1 MMT in 2023-24
Russia wheat: 81.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.5 MMT in November
— compares with 91.5 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine wheat: 22.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 22.9 MMT in November
— compares with 23.0 MMT in 2023-24
China corn: 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in November
— compares with 288.84 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina corn: 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in November
— compares with 50.0 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil corn: 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in November
— compares with 122.0 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine corn: 26.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.2 MMT in November
— compares with 32.5 MMT in 2023-24
South Africa corn: 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in November
— compares with 13.4 MMT in 2023-24
China cotton: 28.2 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 28.2 million bales in Nov. — compares with 27.35 million bales in 2023-24