Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were mostly 2 to 6 cents lower, winter wheat markets were 5 to 7 cents higher, spring wheat was 2 to 3 cents higher and cotton futures were around 300 points lower.
As of 11:15 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 2 cents lower to 4 cents higher, SRW wheat futures are 5 to 7 cents higher, HRW wheat is 2 to 3 cents higher, HRS wheat is around 2 cents higher and cotton futures are around 400 points lower.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.172 billion bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 2.172 billion bu. in February
— compares to 1.361 billion bu. in 2022-23
Beans: 315 million bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 315 million bu. in February
— compares to 268 million bu. in 2022-23
Wheat: 673 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 658 million bu. in February
— compares to 582 million bu. in 2022-23
Cotton: 2.5 million bales for 2023-24, down from 2.8 million bales in February
— compares to 4.25 million bales in 2022-23
USDA left corn ending stocks at 2.172 billion bu., unchanged from last month. It made no changes to the supply or usage forecasts. But USDA lowered the national average on-farm cash price projection by a nickel to $4.75.
USDA made no changes to either the supply or demand side of the old-crop soybean balance sheet, maintaining the ending stocks forecast at 315 million bushels. It kept the 2023-24 on-farm cash price forecast at $12.65.
USDA raised old-crop wheat ending stocks 15 million bu. from last month to 673 million bushels. The only change was a 15-million-bu. cut to exports, which are now projected at 710 million bushels. USDA lowered the 2023-24 average cash wheat price forecast by a nickel to $7.15.
USDA cut old-crop cotton ending stocks 300,000 bales from last month to 2.5 million bales, which would be the lowest since 2013-14. On the supply side, USDA lowered the 2023 crop estimate 330,000 bales, which pulled down total supply by that amount. On the demand side of the balance sheet, the only change was a 40,000-bale increase in unaccounted use to -200,000 bales. USDA left its 2023-24 on-farm cash price forecast at 77 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 319.63 MMT for 2023-24, down from 322.06 MMT in February
— compares to 301.62 MMT in 2022-23
Beans: 114.27 MMT for 2023-24, down from 116.03 MMT in February
— compares to 102.15 MMT for 2022-23
Wheat: 258.83 MMT for 2023-24, down from 259.44 MMT in February
— compares to 271.10 MMT in 2022-23
Cotton: 83.34 million bales for 2023-24, down from 83.7 million bales in February
— compares to 82.97 million bales in 2022-23
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in February
— compares to 25.0 MMT in 2022-23
Brazil beans: 155.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 156.0 MMT in February
— compares to 162.0 MMT in 2022-23
Argentina wheat: 15.9 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.5 MMT in February
— compares to 12.55 MMT in 2022-23
Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 25.5 MMT for February
— compares to 40.55 MMT in 2022-23
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in February
— compares to 137.72 MMT in 2022-23
Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in February
— compares to 34.34 MMT in 2022-23
EU wheat: 133.65 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.0 MMT in February
— compares to 134.19 MMT in 2022-23
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.0 MMT in February
— compares to 92.0 MMT in 2022-23
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.4 MMT in February
— compares to 21.5 MMT in 2022-23
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in February
— compares to 277.2 MMT in 2022-23
Argentina corn: 56.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 55.0 MMT in February
— compares to 36.0 MMT in 2022-23
Brazil corn: 124.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 124.0 MMT in February
— compares to 137.0 MMT in 2022-23
Ukraine corn: 29.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 30.5 MMT for February
— compares to 27.0 MMT in 2022-23
South Africa corn: 15.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 16.8 MMT in February
— compares to 17.1 MMT in 2022-23
China cotton: 27.5 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in February
— compares to 30.7 million bales in 2022-23