PF Report Reaction: Soybean crop much bigger than expected, corn data mildly supportive.

Old- and new-crop corn ending stocks cut despite the bigger production estimate.

USDA Report Reaction
USDA Report Reaction
(Lindsey Pound )

Market reaction

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around 2 cents lower, soybeans are mostly 8 cents lower, wheat futures are 6 to 9 cents lower and cotton is around 85 points higher.

As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are 20 to 22 cents lower, winter wheat is 6 to 8 cents lower, spring wheat is 1 to 2 cents higher and cotton is 185 points higher.

U.S. crop production

Corn: 15.147 billion bu.; trade expected 15.112 billion bu.— compares to 15.100 billion bu. projected in July; 15.342 billion bu. in 2023

Beans: 4.589 billion bu.; trade expected 4.469 billion bu.— compares to 4.435 billion bu. projected in July; 4.165 billion bu. in 2023

Cotton: 15.108 million bales; trade expected 17.02 million bales— compares to 17.00 million bales projected in July; 12.066 million bales in 2023

All wheat: 1.982 billion bu.; trade expected 2.015 billion bu.— compares with 2.008 billion bu. in July; 1.812 billion bu. in 2023

All winter wheat: 1.361 billion bu.; trade expected 1.343 billion bu.— compares with 1.341 billion bu. in July; 1.248 billion bu. in 2023

HRW: 776 million bu.; trade expected 765 million bu.— compares with 763 million bu. in July; 601 million bu. in 2023

SRW: 342 million bu.; trade expected 344 million bu.— compares with 344 million bu. in July; 449 million bu. in 2023

White winter: 243 million bu.; trade expected 234 million bu.— compares with 234 million bu. in July; 198 million bu. in 2023

Other spring wheat: 544 million bu.; trade expected 582 million bu.— compares with 578 million bu. in July; 505 million bu. in 2023

Durum wheat: 77 million bu.; trade expected 90 million bu.— compares with 89 million bu. in July; 59 million bu. in 2023

USDA’s first corn production estimate increased 47 million bu. from the July projection and was 35 million bu. bigger than analysts expected. USDA estimates the yield at a record 183.1 bu. per acre, 2.1 bu. above trendline and 5.8 bu. above last year’s record. Record corn yields are forecast in Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, South Dakota, Washington and Wisconsin. Incorporating FSA certified acres, USDA estimates harvested acreage at 82.710 million acres, down 728,000 acres from the June estimate and 257,000 acres less than analysts expected.

Across the Corn Belt, corn yields are estimated at 225 bu. per acre in Illinois, 207 bu. in Indiana, 209 bu. in Iowa, 128 bu. in Kansas, 177 bu. in Michigan, 185 bu. in Minnesota, 181 bu. in Missouri, 194 bu. in Nebraska, 144 bu. in North Dakota, 188 bu. in Ohio, 162 bu. in South Dakota and 183 bu. in Wisconsin.

USDA’s first soybean crop estimate increased 154 million bu. from the July projection and topped the average pre-report estimate by 120 million bushels. USDA estimates the soybean yield at a record 53.2 bu. per acre, 1.2 bu. above trendline and 2.6 bu. above last year. Record soybean yields are expected in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Ohio.

Across the Corn Belt, soybean yields are estimated at 66 bu. per acre in Illinois, 62 bu. in Indiana, 61 bu. in Iowa, 38 bu. in Kansas, 49 bu. in Michigan, 49 bu. in Minnesota, 51 bu. in Missouri, 59 bu. in Nebraska, 36 bu. in North Dakota, 59 bu. in Ohio, 47 bu. in South Dakota and 53 bu. in Wisconsin.

USDA lowered its all-wheat production forecast 26 million bu. from last month. Winter wheat production increased 20 million bu., with HRW up 14 million bu., SRW down 2 million bu. and white winter up 9 million bushels. USDA cut the other spring wheat estimate 34 million bu. from last month and lowered durum 12 million bushels. USDA raised the wheat yield 0.4 bu. to 52.2 bu. per acre and cut harvested area 900,000 acres to 37.9 million acres.

USDA slashed the cotton crop estimate 1.892 million bales from the July projection, whereas traders expected the figure to be up just a tick. USDA estimates the yield at 840 lbs. per acre, down 4 lbs. from last month’s projection. Harvested areas was reduced 1.036 million acres to 8.634 million acres.

U.S. carryover

Corn: 1.867 billion bu. for 2023-24, down from 1.877 billion bu. in July— 2.073 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 2.097 billion bu. in July

Beans: 345 million bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 345 million bu. in July— 560 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 435 million bu. in July

Wheat: 702 million bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 702 million bu. in July— 828 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 856 million bu. in July

Cotton: 3.15 million bales for 2023-24, up from 3.05 million bales in July— 4.5 million bales for 2024-25, down from 5.3 million bales in July

Old-crop corn carryover is down 10 million bu. from last month and 9 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate. USDA made no change on the supply side of the old-crop balance sheet. USDA cut 15 million bu. from estimated food, seed & industrial (FSI) use (corn-for-ethanol was unchanged at 5.45 billion bu.), but that was more than offset by a 25-million-bu. increase in estimated corn exports to 2.25 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2023-24 at $4.65, unchanged from last month.

New-crop corn carryover is down 24 million bu. from last month and 23 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 36 million bu. with the 10-million-bu. cut to beginning stocks more than offset by the 47-million-bu. increase in the crop size. Total use was increased 60-million-bu. from last month, with feed & residual unchanged at 5.825 billion bu., FSI use down 15 million bu. to 6.840 billion bu. (corn-for-ethanol unchanged at 5.45 billon bu.) and projected new-crop corn exports up 75 million bu. to 2.3 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.20, down a dime from last month.

Old-crop soybean carryover is unchanged from last month and 4 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes to the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA kept crush at 2.29 billion bu., left exports at 1.7 billion bu., increased estimated seed use 1 million bu. to 78 million and cut residual use 1 million bu. to 36 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2023-24 at $12.50, unchanged from last month.

New-crop bean carryover increased 125 million bu. from last month and is 95 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 154 million bu. from last month, the result of the bigger bean crop estimate. On the demand-side, USDA held projected crush at 2.425 billion bu. and increased exports 25 million bu. from last month to 1.825 billion bushels. New-crop residual bean use was also increased 4 million bu. to 36 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2024-25 at $10.80, down 30 cents from last month.

Wheat carryover for the 2024-25 marketing year is down 28 million bu. from last month and 34 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut total supplies for 2024-25 by 26 million bu. from last month due to the smaller wheat crop estimate. On the demand side, USDA increased projected food use 2 million bu. to 964 million bu. and left feed & residual use (110 million bu.) and exports (825 million bu.) unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $5.70, unchanged from last month.

Old-crop cotton carryover increased 100,000 bales from last month. USDA made no changes on the supply side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA increased exports 150,000 bales to 11.75 million bales, but cut unaccounted use 250,000 bales to an estimated -430,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2023-24 at 76 cents, unchanged from last month.

New-crop cotton carryover declined 800,000 bales from last month. Total 2024-25 supplies are down 1.79 million bales from last month due to the smaller crop estimate. Total use is down 1 million bales with all of the cut in estimated exports, which now stand at 12 million bales. Unaccounted use was adjusted up 10,000 bales to an estimated -140,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 66 cents, down 2 cents from last month.

Global carryover

Corn: 308.52 MMT for 2023-24, down from 309.13 MMT in July— 310.17 MMT for 2024-25, down from 311.64 MMT in July

Beans: 112.36 MMT for 2023-24, up from 111.25 MMT in July— 134.30 MMT for 2024-25, up from 127.76 MMT in July

Wheat: 262.36 MMT for 2023-24, up from 260.99 MMT in July— 256.62 MMT for 2024-25, down from 257.24 MMT in July

Cotton: 75.78 million bales for 2023-24, down from 79.31 million bales in July— 77.61 million bales for 2024-25, down from 82.63 million bales in July

Global production highlights

Argentina beans: 49.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in July— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in July

Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 153.0 MMT in July— 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in July

Argentina wheat: 15.85 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.85 MMT in July— 18.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.0 MMT in July

Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 26.0 MMT for July— 30.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 29.0 MMT in July

China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in July— 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in July

Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in July— 35.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.0 MMT in July

EU wheat: 134.87 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.15 MMT in July— 128.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 130.0 MMT in July

Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in July— 83.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 83.0 MMT in July

Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.0 MMT in July— 21.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 19.5 MMT in July

China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in July— 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in July

Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 52.0 MMT in July— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in July

Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 122.0 MMT in July— 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in July

Ukraine corn: 32.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.0 MMT for July— 27.2 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 27.7 MMT in July

South Africa corn: 14.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 14.0 MMT in July— 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in July

China cotton: 27.35 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in July— 27.5 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 27.5 million bales in July