Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading mostly 2 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were 1 to 4 cents lower, wheat futures were 8 to 12 cents lower and cotton was 50 to 70 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 4 cents higher, soybeans are mostly 1 to 5 cents higher, wheat futures are 8 to 15 cents lower and cotton is 65 to 85 points lower.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.875 billion bu.; trade expected 1.880 billion bu.
— compares with 1.858 billion bu. in May; 1.812 billion bu. in 2023
All winter wheat: 1.295 billion bu.; trade expected 1.298 billion bu.
— compares with 1.278 billion bu. in May; 1.248 billion bu. in 2023
HRW: 726 million bu.; trade expected 716 million bu.
— compares with 705 million bu. in May; 601 million bu. in 2023
SRW: 342 million bu.; trade expected 350 million bu.
— compares with 344 million bu. in May; 449 million bu. in 2023
White winter: 226 million bu.; trade expected 229 million bu.
— compares with 229 million bu. in May; 198 million bu. in 2023
USDA increased its winter wheat production estimate 17 million bu. from last month. The national average yield estimate increased 0.7 bu. to 51.4 bu. per acre. USDA left its harvested area estimate at 25.198 million acres.
USDA raised its HRW crop estimate 21 million bu., while it cut the forecasts for SRW and white winter wheat production by 2 million bu. and 3 million bu., respectively, from last month.
Implied other spring wheat and durum production remained at 580 million bushels. USDA will issue its initial survey-based estimates on those crops in July.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.022 billion bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 2.022 billion bu. in May
— 2.102 billion bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 2.102 billion bu. in May
Beans: 350 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 340 million bu. in May
— 455 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 445 million bu. in May
Wheat: 688 million bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 688 million bu. in May
— 758 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 766 million bu. in May
Cotton: 2.85 million bales for 2023-24, up from 2.4 million bales in May
— 4.1 million bales for 2024-25, up from 3.7 million bales in May
Old-crop corn carryover is unchanged from last month but 13 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. New-crop corn carryover is also unchanged but is 23 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes from last month to the old- or new-crop balance sheets for corn. The national average on-farm cash corn price for 2023-24 is unchanged at $4.65 and the new-crop price of $4.40 is also unchanged from last month.
Old-crop soybean carryover at 350 million bu. is up 10 million bu. from last month and is 4 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut estimated old-crop bean crush 10 million bu. to 2.29 billion bu. and left exports unchanged at 1.7 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2023-24 at $12.55, unchanged from last month.
New-crop bean carryover at 455 million bu. is up 10 million bu. from last month and is 7 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total new-crop supplies 10 million bu. due to the bigger beginning stocks. No changes were made on the demand side of the balance sheet with crush at 2.425 billion bu. and exports projected at 1.825 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price at $11.20, unchanged from last month.
Old-crop wheat carryover is unchanged from last month and matched the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA estimates the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2023-24 at $7.00, down a dime from last month.
New-crop wheat carryover is down 8 million bu. from last month and is 20 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies increased 17 million bu. from last month due to the bigger crop estimate. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA increased projected exports 25 million bu. to 800 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $6.50, up 50 cents from last month.
Old-crop cotton carryover is up 450,000 bales from last month. USDA made no change on the supply-side of the balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA increased domestic use 50,000 bales but cut estimated exports 500,000 bales to just 11.8 million bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2023-24 at 76 cents, unchanged from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover at 4.1 million bales is up 400,000 bales from last month. USDA increased total supplies 450,000 bales due to the bigger beginning stocks. On the demand side, unaccounted use was increased 50,000 bales to -150,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 70 cents, down 4 cents from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 312.39 MMT for 2023-24, down from 313.08 MMT in May
— 310.77 MMT for 2024-25, down from 312.27 MMT in May
Beans: 111.07 MMT for 2023-24, down from 111.78 MMT in May
— 127.90 MMT for 2024-25, down from 128.50 MMT in May
Wheat: 259.56 MMT for 2023-24, up from 257.80 MMT in May
— 252.27 MMT for 2024-25, down from 253.61 MMT in May
Cotton: 80.97 million bales for 2023-24, up from 80.48 million bales in May
— 83.49 million bales for 2024-25, up from 83.01 million bales in May
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in May
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in May
Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 154.0 MMT in May
— 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in May
Argentina wheat: 15.85 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.91 MMT in May
— 17.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in May
Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 26.0 MMT for May
— 29.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 29.0 MMT in May
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in May
— 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in May
Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in May
— 34.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.0 MMT in May
EU wheat: 134.15 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.15 MMT in May
— 130.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 132.0 MMT in May
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in May
— 83.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 88.0 MMT in May
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.0 MMT in May
— 19.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 21.0 MMT in May
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in May
— 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in May
Argentina corn: 53.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 53.0 MMT in May
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in May
Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 122.0 MMT in May
— 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in May
Ukraine corn: 31.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.0 MMT for May
— 27.7 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 27.0 MMT in May
South Africa corn: 14.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 14.0 MMT in May
— 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in May
China cotton: 27.5 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in May
— 27.0 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 27.0 million bales in May