Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 3 to 5 cents higher, soybeans were mostly 3 cents higher, wheat futures were 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton futures were 40 to 60 points lower.
As of 11:40 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 7 to 9 cents higher, soybeans are mostly 6 cents higher, wheat is 14 to 19 cents higher and cotton is 100 to 110 points lower.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.858 billion bu.; trade expected 1.888 billion bu.
— compares with 1.812 billion bu. in 2023
All winter wheat: 1.278 billion bu.; trade expected 1.316 billion bu.
— compares with 1.248 billion bu. in 2023
HRW: 705 million bu.; trade expected 695 million bu.
— compares with 601 million bu. in 2023
SRW: 344 million bu.; trade expected 404 million bu.
— compares with 449 million bu. in 2023
White winter: 229 million bu.; trade expected 212 million bu.
— compares with 198 million bu. in 2023
USDA’s initial winter wheat crop estimate is up 30 million bu. from last year but 38 million bu. less than traders expected. The winter wheat yield is estimated up 0.1 bu. to 50.7 bu. per acre. USDA put harvested acres at 25.198 million, up 515,000 acres from last year, despite smaller plantings as the abandonment rate is expected to be much lower.
HRW production is estimated at 705 million bu., up 104 million bu. from last year and 10 million bu. more than expected. The SRW crop is estimated at 344 million bu., down 105 million bu. from last year and 60 million bu. less than expected. White winter wheat production is estimated at 229 million bu., up 31 million bu. from last year and 17 million bu. more than expected.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.022 billion bu. for 2023-24, down from 2.122 billion bu. in April
— projection of 2.102 billion bu. for 2024-25
Beans: 340 million bu. for 2023-24, unchanged from 340 million bu. in April
— projection of 445 million bu. for 2024-25
Wheat: 688 million bu. for 2023-24, down from 698 million bu. in April
— projection of 766 million bu. for 2024-25
Cotton: 2.4 million bales for 2023-24, down from 2.5 million bales in April
— projection of 3.7 million bales for 2024-25
USDA cut old-crop corn carryover 100 million bu. from last month. That’s 78 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply-side of the 2023-24 corn balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA left feed & residual use at 5.7 billion bu.; added 50 million bu. to food, seed & industrial use (to 6.855 billion bu., with all of the increase in corn-for-ethanol demand, which now stands at 5.45 billion bu.); and added 50 million bu. to estimated corn exports. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2023-24 at $4.65, down a nickel from last month.
For 2024-25 corn, USDA projects carryover of 2.102 billion bu., up 80 million bu. from this year but 182 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total supply for 2024-25 at 16.907 billion bu., up 180 million bu. from this year. Total use is projected at 14.805 billion bu., up 100 million bu. from this year. Corn feed & residual use is projected at 5.75 billion bu., up 50 million bu. from this year and corn exports are put at 2.2 billion bu., up 50 million bu. from 2023-24. USDA projects a national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.40, down 25 cents from this year.
USDA left old-crop soybean carryover at 340 million bushels. That’s 1 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut 23 million bu. from estimated old-crop seed use and added 24 million bu. to estimated residual use. After some rounding, old-crop carryover is unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2023-24 at $12.55, unchanged from last month.
For 2024-25 beans, USDA projects carryover of 445 million bu., up 105 million bu. from the current marketing year and 14 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies of 4.805 billion bu. would be up 351 million bu. from this year. Total use is projected at 4.36 billion bu., up 246 million bu. from this year. Soybean crush for 2024-25 is projected at 2.425 billion bu., up 125 million bu. from this year. Exports in 2024-25 are expected to reach 1.825 billion bu., up 125 million bu. from this year. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2024-25 at $11.20, down $1.35 from this year.
USDA cut estimated 2023-24 wheat carryover 10 million bu. from April. That’s 8 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change to the old-crop supply and increased estimated exports 10 million bu. to 720 million bu. to account for the cut to carryover. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2023-24 at $7.10, unchanged from last month.
For 2024-25, USDA projects carryover will increase 78 million bu. from the current marketing year but that’s 20 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are projected at 2.665 billion bu., up 143 million bu. from 2023-24. Total demand is projected at 1.899 billion bu., up 65 million bu. from this year. The biggest year-to-year change is in the export forecast – USDA puts new-crop wheat exports at 775 million bu., up 55 million bu. from this year. USDA projects the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $6.00, down $1.10 from this year.
USDA cut estimated old-crop cotton carryover 100,000 bales from last month. USDA cut total supplies 40,000 bales due to adjustments to the 2023 cotton crop. Total use at 14.9 million bales is up 95,000 bales from last month with total domestic use up 50,000 bales to 1.8 million; total exports unchanged at 12.3 million bales; and unaccounted use up 20,000 bales to -180,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cotton price for 2023-24 at 76 cents, unchanged from last month.
For 2024-25, USDA projects cotton carryover at 3.7 million bales, up 1.3 million bales from this year and about 200,000 bales more than traders expected. Expected total supplies are up more than 2 million bales from year-ago with total use up 800,000 bales. USDA projects the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 74 cents, down 2 cents from this year.
Global carryover
Corn: 313.08 MMT for 2023-24, down from 318.28 MMT in April
— projection of 312.27 MMT for 2024-25
Beans: 111.78 MMT for 2023-24, down from 114.22 MMT in April
— projection of 128.5 MMT for 2024-25
Wheat: 257.80 MMT for 2023-24, down from 258.27 MMT in April
— projection of 253.61 MMT for 2024-25
Cotton: 80.48 million bales for 2023-24, down from 83.08 million bales in April
— projection of 83.01 million bales for 2024-25
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in April
— projection of 51.0 MMT for 2024-25
Brazil beans: 154.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 155.0 MMT in April
— projection of 169.0 MMT for 2024-25
Argentina wheat: 15.91 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.9 MMT in April
— projection of 17.0 MMT for 2024-25
Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 26.0 MMT for April
— projection of 29.0 MMT for 2024-25
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in April
— projection of 140.0 MMT for 2024-25
Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in April
— projection of 34.0 MMT for 2024-25
EU wheat: 134.15 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.15 MMT in April
— projection of 132.0 MMT for 2024-25
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in April
— projection of 88.0 MMT for 2024-25
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.4 MMT in April
— projection of 21.0 MMT for 2024-25
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in April
— projection of 292.0 MMT for 2024-25
Argentina corn: 53.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 55.0 MMT in April
— projection of 51.0 MMT for 2024-25
Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 124.0 MMT in April
— projection of 127.0 MMT for 2024-25
Ukraine corn: 31.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 29.5 MMT for April
— projection of 27.0 MMT for 2024-25
South Africa corn: 14.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 14.0 MMT in April
— projection of 17.0 MMT for 2024-25
China cotton: 27.5 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in April
— projection of 27.0 million bales for 2024-25