Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading 7 to 10 cents lower, soybeans were 6 to 15 cents higher, wheat futures were 2 to 10 cents lower with HRW leading declines and cotton was narrowly mixed.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 3 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 10 to 21 cents higher, SRW wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents lower, HRW wheat is 12 to 14 cents lower and HRS wheat is 9 to 10 cents lower. Cotton futures remain narrowly mixed.
Winter wheat production
All wheat: 1.665 billion bu.; trade expected 1.672 billion bu.
— compares with 1.659 billion bu. in May; 1.650 billion bu. in 2022
All winter wheat: 1.136 billion bu.; trade expected 1.143 billion bu.
— compares with 1.130 billion bu. in May; 1.104 billion bu. in 2022
HRW: 525 million bu.; trade expected 520 million bu.
— compares with 514 million bu. in May; 531 million bu. in 2022
SRW: 402 million bu.; trade expected 414 million bu.
— compares with 406 million bu. in May; 337 million bu. in 2022
White winter: 209 million bu.; trade expected 210 million bu.
— compares with 210 million bu. in May; 236 million bu. in 2022
USDA raised its winter wheat crop estimate 6 million bu. from last month, though that was 7 million bu. less than traders expected. The national average yield increased 0.2 bu. to 44.9 bu. per acre. USDA left harvested area at 25.286 million acres – the largest abandonment rate since 1917.
HRW wheat production increased 11 million bu., whereas traders expected a 6-million-bu. increase. USDA lowered its SRW crop estimate 4 million bu., while traders expected an 8-million-bu. increase. The white winter wheat crop was trimmed 1 million bu., whereas traders anticipated no change.
USDA’s all-wheat production projection implies combined other spring and durum wheat production of 529 million bu., unchanged from last month. USDA’s first survey-based other spring and durum wheat production estimates will come next month.
U.S. carryover
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.452 billion bu. for 2022-23; up from 1.417 billion bu. in May
— 2.257 billion bu. for 2023-24, up from 2.222 billion bu. in May
Beans: 230 million bu. for 2022-23; up from 215 million bu. in May
— 350 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 335 million bu. in May
Wheat: 598 million bu. for 2022-23; unch from 598 million bu. in May
— 562 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 556 million bu. in May
Cotton: 3.2 million bales for 2022-23; down from 3.5 million bales in May
— 3.5 million bales for 2023-24, up from 3.3 million bales in May
USDA raised old-crop corn carryover 35 million bu. from May, which was 3 million bu. more than the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut estimated supplies 15 million bu. via a 15-million-bu. cut to estimated 2022-23 corn imports to just 25 million bushels. The smaller supply was more than offset by a 50-million-bu. cut to estimated old-crop exports to 1.725 billion bushels. Estimated old-crop feed and residual and food seed and industrial use estimates were unchanged from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2022-23 at $6.60, unchanged from last month.
New-crop corn carryover is up 35 million bu. from last month and 3 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA added to total supply with bigger beginning stocks (old-crop carryover). Production projections were unchanged from May with the national average yield projected at 181.5 bu. per acre and the crop projected at 15.265 billion bushels. Total use is projected at 14.485 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. (USDA made no adjustments on the demand-side of the 2023-24 balance sheet.) USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2023-24 at $4.80, unchanged from last month.
USDA raised old-crop soybean carryover 15 million bu. from May, which was 7 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no changes on the supply-side of the old-crop soybean balance sheet. On the demand side, USDA left estimated soybean crush at 2.22 billion bu. but dropped estimated bean exports 15 million bu. to 2.0 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2022-23 at $14.20, unchanged from last month.
On new-crop soybeans, carryover was raised 15 million bu. from May and was 5 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total new-crop supplies 15 million bu. due to bigger beginning stocks. Production projections were unchanged from May with the national average yield projected at 52 bu. per acre and the crop projected at 4.51 billion bushels. Total use for 2023-24 was unchanged from last month at 4.411 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2023-24 at $12.10, unchanged from last month.
Wheat carryover for 2022-23 was unchanged from last month and 8 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA made no change on the supply- or demand-side of the old-crop balance sheet. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2022-23 at $8.85, unchanged from last month.
On new-crop wheat, carryover was increased 6 million bu. from last month but was 7 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies are up 6 million bu. due to the increase in the wheat crop estimate. USDA made no changes to 2023-24 demand estimates from last month and left total use at 1.837 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2023-24 at $7.70, down 30 cents from last month.
Cotton carryover for 2022-23 was cut 300,000 bales from last month. USDA made no changes to old-crop supplies. On the demand side, used cut estimated domestic use 100,000 bales but increased estimated exports 400,000 bales to 13 million bales to account for the cut to estimated carryover. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2022-23 at 82 cents, unchanged from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover was raised 200,000 bales from last month. USDA added 1 million bales to its production projection. Planted acres are unchanged from last month at 11.26 million, but harvested acres are projected at 9.41 million, up 700,000 acres from last month. The national average yield is now projected at 841 lbs. per acre, down 13 lbs. from last month. Even with smaller beginning stocks, total supplies are projected up 700,000 bales from last month. On the demand side for 2023-24, domestic use was unchanged from last month at 2.2 million bales and exports are estimated at 14 million bales, up 500,000 from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 77 cents, down a penny from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 297.55 MMT for 2022-23; up from 297.41 MMT in May
— 313.98 MMT for 2023-24, up from 312.9 MMT in May
Beans: 101.32 MMT for 2022-23; up from 101.04 MMT in May
— 123.34 MMT for 2023-24, up from 122.5 MMT in May
Wheat: 266.66 MMT for 2022-23; up from 266.28 MMT in May
— 270.71 MMT for 2023-24, up from 264.34 MMT in May
Cotton: 92.89 million bales for 2022-23; up from 92.63 million bales in May
— 92.79 million bales for 2023-24, up from 92.28 million bales in May
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 25.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 27.0 MMT in May
— 48.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 48.0 MMT in May
Brazil beans: 156.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 155.0 MMT in May
— 163.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 163.0 MMT in May
Argentina wheat: 12.55 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 12.55 MMT in May
— 19.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 19.5 MMT in May
Australia wheat: 39.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 39.0 MMT in May
— 29.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 29.0 MMT for May
China wheat: 137.72 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 137.72 MMT in May
— 140.0 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 140.0 MMT in May
Canada wheat: 33.82 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 33.82 MMT in May
— 37.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 37.0 MMT in May
EU wheat: 134.34 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 134.34 MMT in May
— 140.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 139.0 MMT in May
Russia wheat: 92.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 92.0 MMT in May
— 85.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 81.5 MMT in May
Ukraine wheat: 20.9 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 20.9 MMT in May
— 17.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 16.5 MMT in May
China corn: 277.2 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 277.2 MMT in May
— 280.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 280.0 MMT in May
Argentina corn: 35.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 37.0 MMT in May
— 54.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 54.0 MMT in May
Brazil corn: 132.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 130.0 MMT in May
— 129.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 129.0 MMT in May
Ukraine corn: 27.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 27.0 MMT in May
— 24.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 22.0 MMT for May
South Africa corn: 17.0 MMT for 2022-23; compares with 16.7 MMT in May
— 16.8 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 16.8 MMT in May
China cotton: 30.7 million bales for 2022-23; compares with 30.7 million bales in May
— 27.0 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in May