PF Report Reaction: Modest changes to S&D tables mostly negative

Market reaction

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans were 6 to 11 cents higher, wheat futures were 10 to 12 cents lower and cotton was modestly firmer.

As of 11:15 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading around a penny lower, soybeans are 1 to 3 cents lower, wheat futures are 10 to 12 cents lower and cotton is modestly weaker.

U.S. carryover

Corn: 2.172 billion bu. for 2023-24, up from 2.162 billion bu. in January
— compares to 1.361 billion bu. in 2022-23

Beans: 315 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 280 million bu. in January
— compares to 268 million bu. in 2022-23

Wheat: 658 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 648 million bu. in January
— compares to 582 million bu. in 2022-23

Cotton: 2.8 million bales for 2023-24, down from 2.9 million bales in January
— compares to 4.25 million bales in 2022-23

USDA raised corn carryover 10 million bu. from last month. On average, traders expected a 16-million-bu. cut to ending stocks. USDA’s only change was a 10-million-bu. cut to projected food, seed and industrial use (to 6.78 billion bu.). Within that category, USDA left corn-for-ethanol use at 5.375 billion bushels. USDA left its average on-farm cash price forecast at $4.80.

USDA raised soybean ending stocks 35 million bu. from last month. The average pre-report estimate showed an expected increase of 16 million bushels. USDA’s only change was a 35-million-bu. cut to exports (now projected at 1.72 billion bu.). USDA lowered its 2023-24 average cash price forecast by a dime from last month to $12.65.

USDA raised wheat carryover 10 million bu. from last month, with the only change being a 10-million-bu. cut to projected food use (to 960 million bu.). Traders expected ending stocks to be trimmed 1 million bushels. USDA left its 2023-24 average on-farm cash price forecast at $7.20.

USDA cut its cotton ending stocks forecast 100,000 bales from last month. Based on the average pre-report estimate, traders expected a 40,000-bale cut to carryover. USDA raised exports 200,000 bales (to 12.3 million bales), raised unaccounted use 50,000 bales (to -160,000 bales) and cut domestic use 150,000 bales (to 1.75 million bales). USDA increased the 2023-24 average cash price projection a penny to 77 cents per pound.

Global carryover

Corn: 322.06 MMT for 2023-24, down from 325.22 MMT in January
— compares to 300.25 MMT in 2022-23

Beans: 116.03 MMT for 2023-24, up from 114.60 MMT in January
— compares to 103.57 MMT for 2022-23

Wheat: 259.44 MMT for 2023-24, down from 260.03 MMT in January
— compares to 271.21 MMT in 2022-23

Cotton: 83.7 million bales for 2023-24, down from 84.38 million bales in January
— compares to 82.97 million bales in 2022-23

Global production highlights

Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in January
— compares to 25.0 MMT in 2022-23

Brazil beans: 156.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 157.0 MMT in January
— compares to 162.0 MMT in 2022-23

Argentina wheat: 15.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.0 MMT in January
— compares to 12.55 MMT in 2022-23

Australia wheat: 25.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 25.5 MMT for January
— compares to 40.55 MMT in 2022-23

China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in January
— compares to 137.72 MMT in 2022-23

Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in January
— compares to 34.34 MMT in 2022-23

EU wheat: 134.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.3 MMT in January
— compares to 134.19 MMT in 2022-23

Russia wheat: 91.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 90.0 MMT in January
— compares to 92.0 MMT in 2022-23

Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.4 MMT in January
— compares to 21.5 MMT in 2022-23

China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in January
— compares to 277.2 MMT in 2022-23

Argentina corn: 55.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 55.0 MMT in January
— compares to 35.0 MMT in 2022-23

Brazil corn: 124.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 127.0 MMT in January
— compares to 137.0 MMT in 2022-23