Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading a penny higher, soybeans were 5 to 7 cents higher, wheat futures were 3 to 7 cents lower and cotton was about 25 points lower.
As of 11:40 a.m. CT, corn is trading 10 to 12 cents higher, soybeans are around 20 cents higher, wheat futures are 1 to 2 cents higher and cotton is around 65 points lower.
Annual Production Summary
Corn: 14.867 billion bu.; trade expected 15.095 billion bu.
— compares to 15.143 billion bu. in November; 15.342 billion bu. in 2023
Beans: 4.366 billion bu.; trade expected 4.453 billion bu.
— compares to 4.461 billion bu. in November; 4.165 billion bu. in 2023
Cotton: 14.414 million bales; trade expected 14.16 million bales
— compares to 14.255 million bales in December; 12.066 million bales in 2023
USDA cut its corn crop estimate 276 million bu. from November. The yield was reduced 3.8 bu. to 179.3 bu. per acre, which still topped the previous record from last year by 2 bu. per acre. Harvested area was increased 186,000 acres to 82.896 million acres.
USDA lowered its soybean crop estimate 95 million bu. from November. USDA cut the yield 1 bu. to 50.7 bu. per acre. Harvested area was reduced 221,000 acres to 86.050 million acres.
USDA raised its cotton crop estimate 159,000 bales from last month. It increased yield by 44 lbs. to 836 lbs. per acre. Harvested area was reduced 364,000 acres to 8.271 million acres.
Quarterly Grain Stocks
Corn: 12.074 billion bu.; trade expected 12.147 billion bu.
— compares to 1.760 billion bu. Sept. 1; 12.171 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2023
Beans: 3.100 billion bu.; trade expected 3.208 billion bu.
— compares to 342 million bu. Sept. 1; 3.001 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2023
Wheat: 1.570 billion bu.; trade expected 1.565 billion bu.
— compares to 1.986 billion bu. Sept. 1; 1.421 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2023
USDA estimated Dec. 1 corn stocks at 12.074 billion bu., 97 million bu. below year-ago and 73 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total corn stored on-farm at 7.663 billion bu., down 167 million bu. (2.1%) from year-ago. Total off-farm corn stocks are estimated at 4.411 billion bu., up 70 million bu. (1.6%) from year-ago. Total corn disappearance in the first-quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is indicated at a record 4.56 billion bu., up from 4.53 billion bu. the same time last year.
USDA estimated Dec. 1 bean stocks at 3.1 billion bu., up 99 million bu. from year-ago but 108 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA puts total on-farm bean stocks at 1.54 billion bu., up 87 million bu. (6%) from year-ago. Total off-farm bean stocks of 1.56 billion bu. are up 12 million bu. (0.8%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance of beans in the first quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 1.61 billion bu., up 13% from the same period last year.
USDA estimated Dec. 1 wheat stocks at 1.57 billion bu., up 149 million bu. from year-ago and 5 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total on-farm wheat stocks of 467 million bu. are up 66 million bu. (16.5%) from year-ago. Total off-farm wheat stocks are estimated at 1.103 billion bu., up 83 million bu. (8.1%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance of wheat in the second quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year is 423 million bu., up 22% from the same time last year.
Winter Wheat Seedings
All winter wheat: 34.115 mil. acres; trade expected 33.366 mil. acres
— compares to 33.390 mil. acres in 2024
HRW: 24.0 mil. acres; trade expected 23.733 mil. acres
— compares to 23.787 mil. acres in 2024
SRW: 6.44 mil. acres; trade expected 6.141 mil. acres
— compares to 6.062 mil. acres in 2024
White winter: 3.64 mil. acres; trade expected 3.496 mil. acres
— compares to 3.541 mil. acres in 2024
USDA estimated U.S. winter wheat seedings up 725,000 acres from last year. Traders expected a modest decline in plantings. Planted area is estimated up 213,000 acres for HRW, up 378,000 acres for SRW and up 99,000 acres for white winter wheat.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.540 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.738 billion bu. in December
— compares with 1.763 billion bu. in 2023-24
Beans: 380 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 470 million bu. in December
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2023-24
Wheat: 798 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 795 million bu. in December
— compares with 696 million bu. in 2023-24
Cotton: 4.8 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.4 million bales in December
— compares with 3.15 million bales in 2023-24
USDA slashed 198 million bu. from projected corn carryover from December. The estimate is also 135 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut 273 million bu. from total supplies, the result of a sharp cut to the 2024 corn crop estimate that was only partially offset by a 3-million-bu. increase in estimated beginning stocks. USDA cut total use 75 million bu. from last month. USDA cut 50 million bu. from feed & residual use (to 5.775 billion bu.) and exports by 25 million bu. (to 2.45 billion bushels). Food, seed & industrial use was unchanged from last month at 6.89 billion bu. (with corn-for-ethanol use unchanged from last month at 5.5 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.25, up 15 cents from last month.
Soybean carryover was cut 90 million bu. from last month and was 77 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut total supplies 89 million bu. from last month due to the smaller crop estimate, which was partially offset by a 5-million-bu. increase in estimated imports. Total use was increased 1 million bu. from last month due to a 1-million-bu. increase in residual use. Crush was unchanged at 2.41 billion bu. and exports were unchanged at 1.825 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2024-25 at $10.20, unchanged from last month.
Wheat carryover inched up 3 million bu. from last month but is 1 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 5 million bu. from last month due to a 5-million-bu. increase in imports. Total use inched up 2 million bu. from December due to a 2-millon-bu. increase in projected seed use to 64 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $5.55, down a nickel from last month.
Cotton carryover is up 400,000 bales from December. USDA increased total supplies 160,000 bales due to the bigger crop estimate. Total use was cut 300,000 bales from last month with exports down 300,000 bales to 11.0 million. Unaccounted use was increased 60,000 bales to -30,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 65 cents, down a penny from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 293.34 MMT for 2024-25, down from 296.44 MMT in December
— compares with 317.46 MMT in 2023-24
Beans: 128.37 MMT for 2024-25, down from 131.87 MMT in December
— compares with 112.38 MMT in 2023-24
Wheat: 258.82 MMT for 2024-25, up from 257.88 MMT in December
— compares with 267.47 MMT in 2023-24
Cotton: 77.91 million bales for 2024-25, up from 76.02 million bales in December
— compares with 74.16 million bales in 2023-24
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 52.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 52.0 MMT in December
— compares with 48.21 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil beans: 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in December
— compares with 153.0 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina wheat: 17.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.5 MMT in December
— compares with 15.85 MMT in 2023-24
Australia wheat: 32.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 MMT in December
— compares with 25.96 MMT in 2023-24
China wheat: 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in December
— compares with 136.59 MMT in 2023-24
Canada wheat: 34.96 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.96 MMT in December
— compares with 32.95 MMT in 2023-24
EU wheat: 121.3 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 121.3 MMT in December
— compares with 135.1 MMT in 2023-24
Russia wheat: 81.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 81.5 MMT in December
— compares with 91.5 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine wheat: 22.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 22.9 MMT in December
— compares with 23.0 MMT in 2023-24
China corn: 294.92 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in December
— compares with 288.84 MMT in 2023-24
Argentina corn: 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in December
— compares with 50.0 MMT in 2023-24
Brazil corn: 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in December
— compares with 122.0 MMT in 2023-24
Ukraine corn: 26.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.5 MMT in December
— compares with 32.5 MMT in 2023-24
South Africa corn: 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in December
— compares with 13.4 MMT in 2023-24
China cotton: 30.0 mil. bales for 2024-25, compares with 28.2 mil. bales in December— compares with 27.35 million bales in 2023-24