Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading steady to 2 cents higher, soybeans were 2 to 10 cents higher, wheat futures were mostly 10 to 18 cents higher and cotton was 110 to 200 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 15 to 25 cents higher, soybeans are 25 to 30 cents lower, winter wheat futures are 9 to 13 cents higher, spring wheat is mostly 23 to 38 cents higher and cotton is 90 to 230 points lower.
Prospective Plantings Report
Corn: 89.490 mil. acres; trade expected 92.001 mil. acres
— compares to 93.357 mil. acres in 2021
Soybeans: 90.955 mil. acres; traders expected 88.727 mil. acres
— compares to 87.195 mil. acres in 2021
All wheat: 47.351 mil. acres; traders expected 47.771 mil. acres
— compares to 46.703 mil. acres in 2021
Other spring wheat: 11.200 mil. acres; traders expected 11.801 mil. acres
— compares to 11.420 mil. acres in 2021
Durum: 1.915 mil. acres; traders expected 1.727 mil. acres
— compares to 1.635 mil. acres in 2021
Cotton: 12.234 mil. acres; traders expected 12.007 mil. acres
— compares to 11.220 mil. acres in 2021
Whoa! USDA estimates farmers intend to plant more acres to soybeans than corn in 2022. Soybean planting intentions far exceeded traders’ expectations, while corn acres were far less than anticipated. Based on early March planting intentions, high fertilizer prices and concerns about availability significantly impacted producers’ planting decisions.
Combined corn and soybean acreage intentions are estimated at 180.445 million acres, down 107,000 acres from last year. USDA estimates total acres planted to principal crops at 317.375 million acres, up 214,000 acres from last year. That would be the highest acreage figure for principal crops since 319.3 million acres in 2018.
Corn planting intentions at 89.490 million acres would be down nearly 3.9 million acres from actual plantings last year and 2.5 million acres shy of the average pre-report estimate. Producers signaled major corn acreage reductions across the Mid-South, Delta and Southeast, along with North Dakota and some of the minor producing states.
Compared with last year, corn plantings are expected to decline 300,000 acres in Illinois (to 10.7 million acres), 300,000 acres in Indiana (5.1 million acres), 300,000 acres in Iowa (12.6 million acres), 300,000 acres in Kansas (5.4 million acres), 100,000 acres in Michigan (2.25 million acres), 6,000 acres in Minnesota (7.8 million acres), 100,000 acres in Missouri (3.5 million acres), 200,000 acres in Nebraska (9.7 million acres), 500,000 acres in North Dakota (3.6 million acres), 200,000 acres in Ohio (3.35 million acres) and 300,000 acres in Wisconsin (3.7 million acres). Of the top 12 corn producing states, only South Dakota is expected to plant more acres (up 50,000 acres to 6.2 million).
Soybean planting intentions at 90.955 million acres would be up 3.8 million acres from last year and roughly 2.2 million acres more than traders expected. Major increases in soybean acres are planned across the southern United States. If realized, the planted area in Illinois, Kentucky, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, Ohio, South Dakota and Wisconsin would be the largest on record.
Compared with last year, soybean plantings are expected to increase 210,000 acres in Arkansas (to 3.25 million acres), 400,000 acres in Illinois (11.0 million acres), 250,000 acres in Indiana (5.9 million acres), 300,000 in Iowa (10.4 million acres), 150,000 acres in Kansas (5.0 million acres), 200,000 acres in Michigan (2.35 million acres), 350,000 acres in Minnesota (8.0 million acres), 400,000 acres in Missouri (6.1 million acres), 100,000 acres in Nebraska (5.7 million acres), 200,000 acres in Ohio (5.1 million acres), 250,000 acres in South Dakota (5.7 million acres) and 200,000 acres in Wisconsin (2.3 million acres). Of the top 13 soybean producing states, only North Dakota is expected to plant fewer acres to soybeans (down 250,000 acres to 7.0 million).
Other spring wheat planting intentions at 11.200 million acres would be down 220,000 acres from last year and 601,000 acres below the average pre-report estimate. Producers intend to plant 300,000 fewer acres to spring wheat in North Dakota (5.2 million acres).
Durum planting intentions at 1.915 million acres would be up 280,000 acres from last year and 188,000 acres more than traders expected. Durum acres are expected to increase 170,000 acres in Montana (840,000 acres) and 100,000 acres in North Dakota (980,000 acres).
Cotton planted area is expected to increase just over 1 million acres from last year to 12.234 million acres, which is 227,000 acres more than the average pre-report estimate. Cotton acreage is expected to increase 455,000 acres in Texas (6.822 million acres) and 30,000 acres in Georgia (1.2 million acres).
Quarterly Grain Stocks Report
Corn: 7.850 billion bu.; traders expected 7.877 billion bu.
— compares to 11.642 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 7.696 bil. bu. on March 1, 2021
Soybeans: 1.931 billion bu.; traders expected 1.902 billion bu.
— compares to 3.152 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.562 bil. bu. on March 1, 2021
Wheat: 1.025 billion bu.; traders expected 1.045 billion bu.
— compares to 1.378 bil. bu. on Dec. 1; 1.311 bil. bu. on March 1, 2021
Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 are up 154 million bu. from last year but are 27 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 4.08 billion bu. are stored on farm, up 1% from year-ago. Off-farm corn stocks of 3.77 billion bu. are up 3% from last year. Implied disappearance in the second quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year is 3.79 billion bu., up 190 million bu. (5.3%) from the same quarter last year.
Soybean stocks in all positions are up 369 million bu. from year-ago and are 29 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Soybeans stored on farm are estimated at 750 million bu., up 26% from year-ago. Off-farm bean stocks totaling 1.18 billion bu. are up 22% from last March. Implied disappearance in the second quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was 1.22 billion bu., down 12% from last year.
Wheat stocks in all positions on March 1 are down 286 million bu. from year-ago and are 20 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. On-farm wheat stocks of 174 million bu. are down 39% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks of 850 million bu. are down 17% from last year. Implied disappearance in the third quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was 353 million bu., down 10% from the same quarter last year.