Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 6 to 8 cents lower, soybeans 5 to 11 cents lower, wheat 12 to 16 cents lower and cotton around 20 points lower.
As of 11:40 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, soybeans are narrowly mixed aside from a 9-cent loss in the August contract, wheat futures are 11 to 16 cents lower and cotton is around 40 points higher.
Wheat production
All wheat: 2.008 billion bu.; trade expected 1.909 billion bu.
— compares with 1.875 billion bu. in June; 1.812 billion bu. in 2023
All winter wheat: 1.341 billion bu.; trade expected 1.316 billion bu.
— compares with 1.295 billion bu. in June; 1.248 billion bu. in 2023
HRW: 763 million bu.; trade expected 743 million bu.
— compares with 726 million bu. in June; 601 million bu. in 2023
SRW: 344 million bu.; trade expected 344 million bu.
— compares with 342 million bu. in June; 449 million bu. in 2023
White winter: 234 million bu.; trade expected 227 million bu.
— compares with 226 million bu. in June; 198 million bu. in 2023
Other spring wheat: 578 million bu.; trade expected 521 million bu.
— compares with 505 million bu. in 2023
Durum wheat: 89 million bu.; trade expected 75 million bu.
— compares with 59 million bu. in 2023
USDA’s first all-wheat production estimate increased 133 million bu. from the June projection and was 99 million bu. higher than analysts expected. USDA estimates the all-wheat yield at 51.8 million bu., up 2.4 bu. from last month’s projection and 3.2 bu. above last year.
The winter wheat crop estimate increased 46 million bu. from last month, which was 25 million bu. more than anticipated, with HRW up 37 million bu., SRW up 2 million bu. and white winter up 8 million bushels.
USDA’s initial other spring wheat crop estimate came in 57 million bu. higher than analysts expected and 73 million bu. above last year. The durum estimate was 14 million bu. above expectations and 30 million bu. bigger than last year.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.877 billion bu. for 2023-24, down from 2.022 billion bu. in June
— 2.097 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 2.102 billion bu. in June
Beans: 345 million bu. for 2023-24, down from 350 million bu. in June
— 435 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 455 million bu. in June
Wheat: 702 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 688 million bu. in June
— 856 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 758 million bu. in June
Cotton: 3.05 million bales for 2023-24, up from 2.85 million bales in June
— 5.3 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.1 million bales in June
Old-crop corn carryover is down 145 million bu. from last month and 172 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised total supplies 5 million bu. due to an increase in estimated old-crop corn imports. On the demand-side, USDA increased estimated feed & residual use 75 million bu. (to 5.775 billion) and estimated exports 75 million bu. (to 2.225 billion). Estimated food, seed & industrial use was unchanged (6.855 billion bu.; corn-for-ethanol at 5.45 billion bu.) from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2023-24 at $4.65, unchanged from last month.
New-crop corn carryover is down 5 million bu. from last month and 215 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised 2024-25 total supplies 95 million bu. from last month due to a 240-million-bu. increase to the 2024 corn crop and the 145-million-bu. drop in beginning stocks. On the demand side, total use is projected up 100 million bu. from last month. USDA increased 2024-25 feed & residual use 75 million bu. (to 5.825 billion bu.) and new-crop corn exports 25 million bu. (to 2.25 billion bu.). New-crop corn food, seed & industrial use was unchanged from last month at 6.855 billion bu. (with corn-for-ethanol unchanged at 5.45 billion bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.30, down a dime from last month.
Old-crop soybean carryover is estimated down 5 million bu. from last month and 10 million bu. below the average pre-report trade guess. USDA cut total old-crop supplies 5 million bu. from last month to 4.449 billion bu., the result of a 5-million-bu. cut to estimated imports (20 million bushels). Total old-crop bean use is up 1 million bu. from last month (rounding) with crush unchanged at 2.29 billion bu., exports unchanged at 1.7 billion bu., seed use unchanged at 77 million bu. and residual use unchanged at 37 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price at $12.50, down a nickel from last month.
New-crop soybean carryover is down 20 million bu. from last month and 14 million bu. below the average pre-report trade guess. Total supplies were cut 20 million bu. from last month due to the lower beginning stocks and a 15-million-bu. reduction to the 2024 bean crop projection. Total new-crop bean use was unchanged at 4.360 billion bu. with crush unchanged at 1.825 billion bu., exports unchanged at 1.825 billion bu., seed use unchanged at 78 million bu. and residual use unchanged at 32 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2024-25 at $11.10, down a dime from last month.
Old-crop wheat carryover of 702 million bu. was determined by the June Grain Stocks Report and is up 14 million bu. from last month. To get to that carryover, USDA cut 2 million bu. from total supplies to 2.52 billion bu. (imports were cut 2 million bu. to 138 million bushels). Total use was cut 16 million bu. to 1.818 billion bushels. USDA lowered old-crop wheat feed & residual use 3 million bu. (to 87 million bu.) and estimated exports 13 million bu. (to 707 million bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2023-24 at $6.96, down 4 cents from last month.
Wheat carryover for 2024-25 increased 98 million bu. from last month and is 68 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 133 million bu. from last month with the crop estimate up 133 million bu. and a 15-million-bu. cut to imports offsetting the bigger beginning stocks. Total 2024-25 wheat use was increased 35 million bu. from last month with feed & residual up 10 million bu. (to 110 million bu.) and exports up 25 million bu. (to 825 million bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $5.70 down 80 cents from last month.
USDA increased old-crop cotton carryover 200,000 bales from last month. Total 2023-24 cotton supplies were unchanged at 16.32 million bales. Old-crop use is down 200,000 bales with all of the decline in estimated exports (11.6 million bales). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2023-24 at 76 cents, unchanged from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover jumped 1.2 million bales from last month. Beginning stocks increased 200,000 bales and the crop projection is up 1 million bales (to 17 million). Total use is unchanged at 14.9 million bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 68 cents, down 2 cents from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 309.13 MMT for 2023-24, ??? from 312.39 MMT in June
— 311.64 MMT for 2024-25, up from 310.77 MMT in June
Beans: 111.25 MMT for 2023-24, up from 111.07 MMT in June
— 127.76 MMT for 2024-25, down from 127.90 MMT in June
Wheat: 260.99 MMT for 2023-24, up from 259.56 MMT in June
— 257.24 MMT for 2024-25, up from 252.27 MMT in June
Cotton: 79.31 million bales for 2023-24, down from 80.97 million bales in June
— 82.63 million bales for 2024-25, down from 83.49 million bales in June
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in June
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in June
Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 153.0 MMT in June
— 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in June
Argentina wheat: 15.85 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.85 MMT in June
— 17.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.5 MMT in June
Australia wheat: 26.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 26.0 MMT for June
— 29.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 29.0 MMT in June
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in June
— 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in June
Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in June
— 35.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 34.0 MMT in June
EU wheat: 134.15 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.15 MMT in June
— 130.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 130.5 MMT in June
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in June
— 83.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 83.0 MMT in June
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.0 MMT in June
— 19.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 19.5 MMT in June
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in June
— 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in June
Argentina corn: 52.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 53.0 MMT in June
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in June
Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 122.0 MMT in June
— 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in June
Ukraine corn: 31.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.0 MMT for June
— 27.7 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 27.7 MMT in June
South Africa corn: 14.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 14.0 MMT in June
— 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in June
China cotton: 27.5 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.5 million bales in June— 27.5 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 27.0 million bales in June