Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading mostly 3 cents lower, soybeans were 2 to 5 cents lower, wheat futures were steady to 3 cents lower and cotton was 35 to 45 points lower.
As of 11:45 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 11 to 15 cents lower, soybeans are nearly 30 cents lower, SRW wheat is 13 to 15 cents lower, HRW wheat is 6 to 8 cents lower and spring wheat is mostly 4 to 5 cents lower. Cotton futures are narrowly mixed.
Annual Production Summary
Corn: 15.342 billion bu.; trade expected 15.226 billion bu.
— compares to 15.234 billion bu. in November; 13.730 billion bu. in 2022
Beans: 4.165 billion bu.; trade expected 4.127 billion bu.
— compares to 4.129 billion bu. in November; 4.276 billion bu. in 2022
Cotton: 12.434 million bales; trade expected 12.770 million bales
— compares to 12.776 million bales in December; 14.47 million bales in 2022
USDA raised its corn production estimate 108 million bu. from last month to a record 15.342 billion bu., 116 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate. Its yield estimate increased 2.4 bu. to a record 177.3 bu. per acre. USDA cut harvested area by 583,000 acres to 86.513 million acres.
USDA raised its soybean production estimate 36 million bu. to 4.165 billion bu., which was 38 million bu. more than the average pre-report estimate. USDA increased yield 0.7 bu. to 50.6 bu. per acre. Harvested area was cut 435,000 acres to 82.356 million acres.
USDA cut its cotton crop estimate 342,000 bales to 12.434 million bales, which was 336,000 bales less than traders expected. The average yield jumped 80 lbs. to 845 lbs. per acre as USDA cut harvested area 956,000 acres to 7.065 million acres.
Quarterly Grain Stocks
Corn: 12.169 billion bu.; trade expected 12.050 billion bu.
— compares to 1.361 billion bu. Sept. 1; 10.821 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2022
Beans: 3.000 billion bu.; trade expected 2.975 billion bu.
— compares to 268 million bu. Sept. 1; 3.021 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2022
Wheat: 1.410 billion bu.; trade expected 1.387 billion bu.
— compares to 1.780 billion bu. Sept. 1; 1.312 billion bu. Dec. 1, 2022
USDA estimates Dec. 1 corn stocks at 12.169 billion bu., up 1.348 billion bu. from year-ago and 119 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 7.830 billion bu. (64.3% of total) is stored on-farm – that’s up 1.09 billion bu. (16.2%) from year-ago. Off-farm stocks of 4.339 billion bu. (35.7% of total) are up 266 million bu. (6.5%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance in the first quarter of the 2023-24 marketing year is 4.53 billion bu., down 7.6% from same period last year.
USDA estimates Dec. 1 soybean stocks at 3.0 billion bu., down 21 million bu. from last year, but 25 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 1.453 billion bu. (48.4% of total) is stored on-farm – that’s down 24 million bu. (16.2%) from year-ago. Off-farm stocks of 1.547 billion bu. (51.6% of total) are up 3 million bu. (0.2%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance in the first quarter of the 2023-24 marketing year is 1.43 billion bu., down 6% from last year.
USDA estimates Dec. 1 wheat stocks in all positions at 1.41 billion bu., up 98 million bu. from last year and 23 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 395 million bu. are stored on-farm (28% of total) – that’s up 33.1 million bu. (9.1%) from last year. Off-farm stocks of 1.015 billion bu. (72% of total) are up 65 million bu. (6.8%) from year-ago. Implied disappearance in the second quarter of the 2023-24 marketing year is 357 million bu., down 23% from the same period last year.
Winter Wheat Seedings
All winter wheat: 34.425 mil. acres; trade expected 35.786 mil. acres
— compares to 36.699 mil. acres in 2023
HRW: 24.0 mil. acres; trade expected 25.113 mil. acres
— compares to 25.695 mil. acres in 2023
SRW: 6.86 mil. acres; trade expected 7.077 mil. acres
— compares to 7.360 mil. acres in 2023
White winter: 3.54 mil. acres; trade expected 3.595 mil. acres
— compares to 3.644 mil. acres in 2023
USDA estimates U.S. winter wheat seedings declined 2.274 million acres from last year to 34.425 million acres, which was 1.361 million acres less than traders anticipated.
HRW seedings fell nearly 1.7 million acres to 24.0 million acres, with the largest reductions in Kansas and Texas, the two largest producers. Plantings came in more than 1.1 million acres less than anticipated.
SRW plantings declined 500,000 acres to 6.86 million acres, which was 217,000 acres less than expected.
White winter wheat seedings dropped 104,000 acres to 3.54 million acres, which was 55,000 acres less than traders expected.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 2.162 billion bu. for 2023-24, up from 2.131 billion bu. in December
— compares to 1.361 billion bu. in 2022-23
Beans: 280 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 245 million bu. in December
— compares to 268 million bu. in 2022-23
Wheat: 648 million bu. for 2023-24, down from 659 million bu. in December
— compares to 582 million bu. in 2022-23
Cotton: 2.9 million bales for 2023-24, down from 3.1 million bales in December
— compares to 4.25 million bales in 2022-23
USDA increased corn carryover 31 million bu. from last month to 2.162 billion bu., 57 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA raised total 2023-24 supplies 106 million bu. from last month due to the bigger 2023 crop estimate. That increase in total supplies was partially offset by a 25-million-bu. increase in feed & residual use (to 5.675 billion bu.) and a 50-million-bu. increase in food, seed & industrial use (to 6.79 billion bu. – all of the increase is in corn-for-ethanol use which now stands at 5.375 billion bushels). Exports were unchanged at 2.1 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price at $4.80, down a nickel from last month.
USDA increased estimated soybean carryover 35 million bu. from last month to 280 million bu., 37 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA increased total supplies 31 million bu. from last month due to the bigger 2023 bean crop estimate. USDA left crush unchanged at 2.3 billion bu. and exports were steady at 1.755 billion bushels. USDA trimmed 3 million bu. from residual “use.” USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price at $13.75, down 15 cents from last month.
USDA cut estimated 2023-24 wheat carryover 11 million bu. from last month to 648 million bu., 10 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut total supplies 12 million bu. from last month due to a 12-million-bu. cut to beginning stocks. USDA also cut 1 million bu. from seed use (to 64 million bushels). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price at $7.20, down a dime from last month.
Cotton carryover was cut 200,000 bales from last month to 2.9 million bales. USDA cut total supplies 340,000 bales due to a smaller crop estimate. USDA left domestic use unchanged from last month at 1.9 million bales and trimmed exports 100,000 bales to 12.1 million bales. Unaccounted use is put at -210,000 bales, down 40,000 bales from last month. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price at 76 cents, down a penny from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 325.22 MMT for 2023-24, up from 315.22 MMT in December
— compares to 300.56 MMT in 2022-23
Beans: 114.6 MMT for 2023-24, up from 114.21 MMT in December
— compares to 101.87 MMT for 2022-23
Wheat: 260.03 MMT for 2023-24, up from 258.20 MMT in December
— compares to 271.56 MMT in 2022-23
Cotton: 84.38 million bales for 2023-24, up from 82.40 million bales in December
— compares to 83.22 million bales in 2022-23
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 48.0 MMT in December
— compares to 25.0 MMT in 2022-23
Brazil beans: 157.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 161.0 MMT in December
— compares to 160.0 MMT in 2022-23
Argentina wheat: 15.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.0 MMT in December
— compares to 12.55 MMT in 2022-23
Australia wheat: 25.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 25.5 MMT for December
— compares to 40.55 MMT in 2022-23
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 137.0 MMT in December
— compares to 137.72 MMT in 2022-23
Canada wheat: 31.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in December
— compares to 34.34 MMT in 2022-23
EU wheat: 134.3 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.3 MMT in December
— compares to 134.19 MMT in 2022-23
Russia wheat: 91.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 90.0 MMT in December
— compares to 92.0 MMT in 2022-23
Ukraine wheat: 23.4 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 22.5 MMT in December
— compares to 21.5 MMT in 2022-23
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 277.0 MMT in December
— compares to 277.2 MMT in 2022-23
Argentina corn: 55.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 55.0 MMT in December
— compares to 34.0 MMT in 2022-23
Brazil corn: 127.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 129.0 MMT in December
— compares to 137.0 MMT in 2022-23
Ukraine corn: 30.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 30.5 MMT for December
— compares to 27.0 MMT in 2022-23
South Africa corn: 16.8 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 16.8 MMT in December
— compares to 17.1 MMT in 2022-23
China cotton: 27.5 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.0 million bales in December |