Market reaction
Ahead of USDA’s reports, corn futures were trading 7 to 8 cents higher, soybeans were 9 to 10 cents higher and wheat futures were 9 to 15 cents higher.
As of 11:20a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 10 to 12 cents higher, soybeans are 15 to 20 cents lower and wheat is 18 to 28 cents higher.
Sept. 1 Grain Stocks
Corn: 1.377 billion bu.; trade expected 1.512 billion bu.
— compares to 4.346 billion bu. on June 1; 1.235 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2021
Beans: 274 million bu., trade expected 242 million bu.
— compares to 971 million bu. on June 1; 257 million bu. on Sept. 1, 2021
Wheat: 1.776 billion bu.; trade expected 1.776 billion bu.
— compares to 660 million bu. on June 1; 1.774 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2021
Something for everyone in this report... corn stocks well below trade expectations, beans above and wheat right at pre-report trade expectations.
USDA put corn stocks in all positions at 1.377 billion bushels, up 142 million bu. from year-ago but 135 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, USDA says corn stored on-farm was 510 million bu., up 29% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks at 867 million bu. are up 3% from year-ago. Implied use in the fourth quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was 2.97 billion bu., up 90 million bu. (3.1%) from year-ago.
USDA included this note on corn: “Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports, and farm program administrative data, the 2021 corn for grain production is revised down 41.4 million bushels from the previous estimate. Corn silage production is revised down 888 thousand tons. Planted area is revised to 93.3 million acres, and area harvested for grain is revised to 85.3 million acres. Area harvested for silage is revised to 6.45 million acres. The 2021 grain yield, at 176.7 bushels per acre, is down 0.3 bushel from the previous estimate. The 2021 silage yield, at 20.1 tons per acre, remains unchanged from the previous estimate.”
USDA puts soybean stocks in all positions at 274 million bu., up 17 million bu. from year-ago and 32 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, USDA says soybeans stored on-farm was62.9 million bu., down 8% from year-ago levels. Off-farm stocks at 211 million bu. are up 12% from year-ago. Implied disappearance in the fourth quarter of the 2021-22 marketing year was 698 million bu., up 36% from the same quarter last year.
USDA included this note on soybeans: “Based on an analysis of end-of-marketing year stock estimates, disappearance data for exports and crushings, and farm program administrative data, the 2021 soybean production is revised up 30.2 million bushels from the previous estimate. Planted area is unchanged at 87.2 million acres, but harvested area is revised to 86.3 million acres. The 2021 yield, at 51.7 bushels per acre, is up 0.3 bushel from the previous estimate.”
USDA puts all-wheat stocks in all positions at 1.776 billion bu. up just 2 million bu. from last year and matching the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, USDA says wheat stored on-farm totaled 591 million bu., up 41% from year-ago. Off-farm stocks at 1.18 billion bu. are down 13% from year-ago. Implied use in the first quarter of the 2022-23 marketing year for wheat was 543 million bu, down 24% from the same period last year.
Annual Small Grains Summary
All wheat: 1.650 billion bu.; trade expected 1.778 billion bu.
— compares to 1.783 billion bu. in August
All winter wheat: 1.104 billion bu.; trade expected 1.191 billion bu.
— compares to 1.198 billion bu. in August
HRW: 531 million bu.; trade expected 573 million bu.
— compares to 576 million bu. in August
SRW: 337 million bu.; trade expected 379 million bu.
— compares to 381 million bu. in August
White winter: 236 million bu.; trade expected 238 million bu.
— compares to 240 million bu. in August
Other spring wheat: 482 million bu.; trade expected 514 million bu.
— compares to 512 million bu. in August
Durum: 64 million bu.; trade expected 74 million bu.
— compares to 74 million bu. in August
USDA’s final all-wheat production estimate declined 133 million bu. from August and was 128 million bu. lower than the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA lowered its yield by 1 bu. to 46.5 bu. per acre. It cut harvested acres by around 2 million to 35.48 million acres.
USDA cut production for all wheat classes from August. USDA cut production by 45 million bu. for HRW, 44 million bu. for SRW, 4 million bu. for white winter, 30 million bu. for other spring and 10 million bu. for durum.