Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 2 to 4 cents higher, soybeans were 2 to 5 cents lower, wheat futures were narrowly mixed and cotton was 65 to 75 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn and soybeans are trading 1 to 2 cents higher, wheat futures are 1 to 3 cents lower and cotton is 75 to 95 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 15.143 billion bu.; trade expected 15.189 billion bu.
— compares to 15.203 billion bu. in October; 15.342 billion bu. in 2023
Beans: 4.461 billion bu.; trade expected 4.557 billion bu.
— compares to 4.582 billion bu. in October; 4.165 billion bu. in 2023
Cotton: 14.191 million bales; trade expected 14.08 million bales
— compares to 14.201 million bales in October; 12.066 million bales in 2023
USDA cut its corn crop estimate 60 million bu. from last month. The average yield declined 0.7 bu. to 183.1 bu. per acre, though still 5.8 bu. above last year’s record. Harvested area was unchanged at 82.710 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA cut yields in Illinois (down 4 bu. to 218 bu.), Iowa (down 1 bu. to 213 bu.), Missouri (down 3 bu. to 182 bu.), Nebraska (down 2 bu. to 194 bu.) and Wisconsin (down 1 bu. to 181 bu.). USDA kept yield unchanged in Kansas (138 bu.), Michigan (179 bu.) and Minnesota (183 bu.). USDA raised yields in Indiana (up 7 bu. to 209 bu.), North Dakota (up 5 bu. to 149 bu.), Ohio (up 2 bu. to 185 bu.) and South Dakota (up 3 bu. to 166 bu.).
USDA reduced its soybean production estimate 121 million bu. from last month. The yield declined 1.4 bu. to 51.7 bu. per acre, though still up 1.1 bu. from last year. Harvested area was unchanged at 86.271 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA cut yields in Illinois (down 2 bu. to 65 bu.), Iowa (down 3 bu. to 61 bu.), Kansas (down 1 bu. to 38 bu.), Michigan (down 1 bu. to 51 bu.), Minnesota (down 2 bu. to 46 bu.), Missouri (down 4 bu. to 47 bu.), South Dakota (down 2 bu. to 45 bu.) and Wisconsin (down 4 bu. to 49 bu.). USDA kept yield unchanged in Arkansas (55 bu.), Nebraska (59 bu.), North Dakota (38 bu.) and Ohio (52 bu.). USDA raised yields in Indiana (up 2 bu. to 62 bu.).
USDA trimmed its cotton production estimate 10,000 bales from last month. Both yield and harvested area were unchanged at 789 lbs. per acre and 8.635 million acres, respectively.
USDA cut the Texas yield 27 lbs. to 553 lbs. per acre and raised the Georgia yield 88 lbs. to 815 lbs. per acre.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.938 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 1.999 billion bu. in October
— compares with 1.760 billion bu. in 2023-24
Beans: 470 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 550 million bu. in October
— compares with 342 million bu. in 2023-24
Wheat: 815 million bu. for 2024-25, up from 812 million bu. in October
— compares with 696 million bu. in 2023-24
Cotton: 4.3 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.1 million bales in October
— compares with 3.15 million bales in 2023-24
USDA cut 2024-25 corn carryover 61 million bu. from October. USDA dropped total supplies 61 million bu. from last month due to the smaller corn crop estimate. USDA made no changes on the demand side of the 2024-25 corn balance sheet leaving feed & residual use at 5.835 billion bu.; food, seed & industrial use at 6.84 billion (with 5.45 billion to corn-for-ethanol); and exports at 2.325 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.10, unchanged from last month.
Soybean carryover for 2024-25 was reduced 80 million bu. from last month. USDA cut total supplies 121 million bu. from last month due to the smaller crop estimate. On the demand side of the balance sheet, USDA lowered crush 15 million bu. (to 2.41 billion bu.) and exports 25 million bu. (to 1.825 billion bu.) to partially offset the smaller total supply. Total use at 4.348 billion bu. is down 41 million bu. from last month. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash bean price at $10.80, unchanged from last month.
Wheat carryover increased 3 million bu. from last month. USDA raised total supplies 5 million bu. with imports up 5 million bu. to 120 million bushels. On the demand side, USDA increased total use 2 million bu. to 1.973 billion bu. due to a 2-million-bu. increase in food use (966 million bushels). USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash wheat price at $5.60, down a dime from last month.
Cotton carryover increased 200,000 bales from last month. Total supplies declined 10,000 bales from last month due to the slight reduction in the cotton crop. USDA cut total use 200,000 bales due to a 200,000-bale cut to exports (which now stand at 11.3 million bales). USDA also cut unaccounted use 10,000 bales to -50,000 bales. USDA puts the 2024-25 national average on-farm cash cotton price at 66 cents, unchanged from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 304.14 MMT for 2024-25, down from 306.52 MMT in October
— compares with 314.22 MMT in 2023-24
Beans: 131.71 MMT for 2024-25, down from 134.65 MMT in October
— compares with 112.42 MMT in 2023-24
Wheat: 257.57 MMT for 2024-25, down from 257.72 MMT in October
— compares with 266.25 MMT in 2023-24
Cotton: 75.75 million bales for 2024-25, down from 76.33 million bales in October
— compares with 74.59 million bales in 2023-24
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.1 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 48.1 MMT in October
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in October
Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 153.0 MMT in October
— 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in October
Argentina wheat: 15.85 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.85 MMT in October
— 17.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.0 MMT in October
Australia wheat: 25.96 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 25.96 MMT for October
— 32.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 MMT in October
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in October
— 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in October
Canada wheat: 32.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 32.95 MMT in October
— 35.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.0 MMT in October
EU wheat: 134.87 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.87 MMT in October
— 122.6 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 123.0 MMT in October
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in October
— 81.5 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 82.0 MMT in October
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.0 MMT in October
— 22.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 22.9 MMT in October
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in October
— 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in October
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in October
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in October
Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 122.0 MMT in October
— 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in October
Ukraine corn: 32.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 32.5 MMT for October
— 26.2 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 26.2 MMT in October
South Africa corn: 13.4 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 13.4 MMT in October
— 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in October
China cotton: 27.35 mil. bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.35 mil. bales in October
— 28.2 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 28.2 million bales in October