Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading a penny higher, soybeans were mostly a penny lower and wheat futures were 3 to 7 cents higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 6 to 7 cents higher, soybeans are narrowly mixed and wheat futures are 7 to 11 cents higher.
Sept. 1 Grain Stocks
Corn: 1.760 billion bu.; trade expected 1.844 billion bu.
— compares to 4.993 billion bu. on June 1; 1.360 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2023
Beans: 342 million bu., trade expected 351 million bu.
— compares to 970 million bu. on June 1; 264 million bu. on Sept. 1, 2023
Wheat: 1.986 billion bu.; trade expected 1.973 billion bu.
— compares to 702 million bu. on June 1; 1.767 billion bu. on Sept. 1, 2023
Corn stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 are estimated at 1.76 billion bu., up 400 million bu. from the same time last year but 84 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 780 million bu. (44.3%) are stored on-farm and 980 million bu. (55.7%) are stored off-farm. Implied disappearance in the final quarter of the 2023-24 marketing year is 3.24 billion bu., up 18.2% from the same period last year. USDA made only minor revisions to the 2023 corn-for-grain and corn-for-silage production estimates.
Soybean stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 are estimated at 342 million bu., up 78 million bu. from last year but 9 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 111 million bu. (32.5%) are stored on-farm and 231 million bu. (67.5%) are stored off-farm. Implied disappearance in the final quarter of the 2023-24 marketing year for soybeans was 628 million bu., up 18% from the same period last year. USDA made only minor revisions to the 2023 soybean production estimate.
Wheat stocks in all positions on Sept. 1 are estimated at 1.986 billion bu., up 219 million bu. from year-ago and 13 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Of the total, 664 million bu. (33.4%) are stored on-farm and 1.322 billion bu. (66.6%) are stored off-farm. Implied disappearance in the first quarter of the 2024-25 marketing year for wheat is 682 million bu., up 12% from the same period last year.
Annual Small Grains Summary
All wheat: 1.971 billion bu.; trade expected 1.966 billion bu.
— compares to 1.982 billion bu. in August
All winter wheat: 1.349 billion bu.; trade expected 1.350 billion bu.
— compares to 1.361 billion bu. in August
HRW: 770 million bu.; trade expected 768 million bu.
— compares to 776 million bu. in August
SRW: 342 million bu.; trade expected 342 million bu.
— compares to 342 million bu. in August
White winter: 236 million bu.; trade expected 244 million bu.
— compares to 243 million bu. in August
Other spring wheat: 542 million bu.; trade expected 540 million bu.
— compares to 544 million bu. in August
Durum: 80 million bu.; trade expected 76 million bu.
— compares to 77 million bu. in August
USDA’s final all-wheat production estimate declined 11 million bu. from August to 1.971 billion bu. but was 5 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA estimated all-wheat harvested acres at 38.469 million bu. on a national average yield of 51.2 bu. per acre.
USDA estimated the winter wheat crop at 1.349 billion bu., down 12 million bu. from August. The winter wheat yield is estimated at 51.7 bu. per acre. HRW production declined 6 million bu. to 770 million bushels. SRW production held at 342 million bushels. White winter production dropped 7 million bu. to 236 million bushels.
USDA’s other spring wheat crop estimate declined 2 million bu. from August to 542 million bu. on a yield of 52.5 bu. per acre. The durum estimate increased 3 million bu. to 80 million bu. on a yield of 39.3 bu. per acre.