Market Reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading around a penny higher, soybeans were 6 to 7 cents higher, wheat futures were 2 to 6 cents higher and cotton was about 25 points lower.
As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading mostly a nickel lower, soybeans are around a penny higher, winter wheat futures are 4 to 6 cents lower, spring wheat is a penny lower and cotton is around 60 points higher.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 15.186 billion bu.; trade expected 15.076 billion bu.— compares to 15.147 billion bu. in August; 15.342 billion bu. in 2023
Beans: 4.586 billion bu.; trade expected 4.589 billion bu.— compares to 4.589 billion bu. in August; 4.165 billion bu. in 2023
Cotton: 14.512 million bales; trade expected 15.31 million bales— compares to 15.108 million bales in August; 12.066 million bales in 2023
USDA raised its corn crop estimate 39 million bu. from last month. It increased yield 0.5 bu. to 183.6 bu. per acre. Harvested area was unchanged at 82.710 million acres.
Record yields are forecast in Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Nebraska, New York, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
Compared to last month, USDA increased yields in Indiana (up 3 bu. to 210 bu. per acre), Iowa (up 3 bu. to 212 bu.), Kansas (up 3 bu. to 131 bu.), Michigan (up 5 bu. to 182 bu.), Nebraska (up 1 bu. to 195 bu.), North Dakota (up 2 bu. to 146 bu.) and South Dakota (up 1 bu. to 163 bu.). USDA left yields unchanged in Missouri (181 bu.). USDA lowered yields in Illinois (down 3 bu. to 222 bu.), Minnesota (down 2 bu. to 183 bu.), Ohio (down 1 bu. to 187 bu.) and Wisconsin (down 1 bu. to 182 bu.).
USDA trimmed its soybean production estimate 3 million bu. from last month. USDA made no changes to yield (53.2 bu. per acre) or harvested area (86.271 million acres). USDA’s objective yield data for the combined 11 major soybean-producing states (Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, and South Dakota) indicated a lower pod count compared with last year. Record yields are forecast in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Mississippi, New York and Texas.
Compared to last month, USDA increased yields in Indiana (up 1 bu. to 63 bu.), Iowa (up 2 bu. to 63 bu.), Kansas (up 1 bu. to 39 bu.), Michigan (up 1 bu. to 50 bu.), North Dakota (up 2 bu. to 38 bu.) and Wisconsin (up 1 bu. to 54 bu.). USDA left yields unchanged in Minnesota (49 bu.), Nebraska (59 bu.) and South Dakota (47 bu.). USDA lowered yields in Arkansas (down 2 bu. to 55 bu.), Illinois (down 1 bu. to 65 bu.), Missouri (down 1 bu. to 50 bu.) and Ohio (down 4 bu. to 55 bu.).
USDA cut its cotton production estimate 596,000 bales from last month. The average yield was reduced 33 lbs. to 807 lbs. per acre. Harvested area was unchanged at 8.635 million acres. USDA cut yields 53 lbs. in Texas and 44 lbs. in Georgia.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.812 billion bu. for 2023-24, down from 1.867 billion bu. in August— 2.057 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 2.073 billion bu. in August
Beans: 340 million bu. for 2023-24, down from 345 million bu. in August— 550 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 560 million bu. in August
Wheat: 828 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 828 million bu. in August
Cotton: 3.15 million bales for 2023-24, unchanged from 3.15 million bales in August— 4.0 million bales for 2024-25, ??? from 4.5 million bales in August
USDA lowered old-crop corn ending stocks 55 million bu. from last month. USDA increased estimated food, seed & industrial (FSI) use 15 million bu., with all of that increase coming from ethanol. USDA raised the export forecast 40 million bushels to 2.29 billion bu. USDA’s old-crop price forecast was unchanged at $4.65.
USDA cut projected new-crop corn ending stocks 16 million bu. from last month. Total supply declined 16 million bu. as the bigger crop estimate was more than offset by smaller beginning stocks. USDA made no changes to the usage side of the balance sheet. Despite the reduction in ending stocks, USDA lowered its average cash price projection by a dime to $4.10.
USDA trimmed old-crop soybean ending stocks 5 million bu. from last month. The only change was a 5-million-bu. increase to crush. USDA’s average cash price forecast was unchanged at $12.50.
USDA cut projected new-crop soybean ending stocks 10 million bu. from August. Total supply declined 8 million bu. on lower beginning stocks and the modestly smaller crop estimate. The only change on the usage side was a 2-million-bu. increase to projected residual use. USDA kept its average cash price projection at $10.80.
USDA left projected 2024-25 wheat ending stocks unchanged from last month. It made no changes to supply or usage forecasts. USDA kept its 2024-25 average cash wheat price projection at $5.70.
USDA kept estimated old-crop cotton carryover at 3.15 million bales. USDA made adjustments to prior years’ exports and residual use from census revisions, increasing old-crop carry-in by 400,000 bales. That was offset by a cut in imports and an increase in unaccounted use.
USDA cut projected new-crop cotton ending stocks 500,000 bales. Total supply declined 600,000 bales due to the smaller crop estimate. On the usage side, USDA cut exports 200,000 bales to 11.8 million bales and raised unaccounted use 110,000 bales to -30,000 bales. USDA left its projected 2024-25 price projection at 66 cents.
Global carryover
Corn: 309.63 MMT for 2023-24, up from 308.52 MMT in August— 308.35 MMT for 2024-25, down from 310.17 MMT in August
Beans: 112.25 MMT for 2023-24, down from 112.36 MMT in August— 134.58 MMT for 2024-25, up from 134.30 MMT in August
Wheat: 265.25 MMT for 2023-24, up from 262.36 MMT in August— 257.22 MMT for 2024-25, up from 256.62 MMT in August
Cotton: 75.61 million bales for 2023-24, down from 75.78 million bales in August— 76.49 million bales for 2024-25, down from 77.61 million bales in August
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.1 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 49.0 MMT in August— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in August
Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 153.0 MMT in August— 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in August
Argentina wheat: 15.85 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.85 MMT in August— 18.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.0 MMT in August
Australia wheat: 25.96 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 26.0 MMT for August— 32.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 30.0 MMT in August
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in August— 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in August
Canada wheat: 32.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 31.95 MMT in August— 35.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.0 MMT in August
EU wheat: 134.87 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.87 MMT in August— 124.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 128.0 MMT in August
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in August— 83.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 83.0 MMT in August
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.0 MMT in August— 22.3 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 21.6 MMT in August
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in August— 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in August
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in August— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in August
Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 122.0 MMT in August— 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in August
Ukraine corn: 32.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 32.5 MMT for August— 27.2 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 27.2 MMT in August
South Africa corn: 13.7 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 14.0 MMT in August— 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in August
China cotton: 27.35 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.35 million bales in August— 27.8 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 27.5 million bales in August