Market reaction
Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading a penny higher, soybean were 4 to 5 cents higher, wheat futures were 2 to 4 cents lower and cotton was around 20 points higher.
As of 11:20 a.m. CT, corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans are 7 to 8 cents lower, wheat futures are mostly 8 to 10 cents lower and cotton is around 70 points lower.
U.S. crop production
Corn: 15.203 billion bu.; trade expected 15.155 billion bu.
— compares to 15.186 billion bu. in September; 15.342 billion bu. in 2023
Beans: 4.582 billion bu.; trade expected 4.579 billion bu.
— compares to 4.586 billion bu. in September; 4.165 billion bu. in 2023
Cotton: 14.201 million bales; trade expected 14.270 million bales
— compares to 14.512 million bales in September; 12.066 million bales in 2023
USDA raised its corn crop estimate 17 million bu. from last month. The yield increased 0.2 bu. to 183.8 bu. per acre. Harvested area remained at 82.710 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA raised yields in Iowa (up 2 bu. to 214 bu. per acre), Kansas (up 7 bu. to 138 bu.), Missouri (up 4 bu. to 185 bu.) and Nebraska (up 1 bu. to 196 bu.). USDA kept yields unchanged in Illinois (222 bu.), Minnesota (183 bu.), South Dakota (163 bu.) and Wisconsin (182 bu.). USDA cut yields in Indiana (down 8 bu. to 202 bu.), Michigan (down 3 bu. to 179 bu.), North Dakota (down 2 bu. to 144 bu.) and Ohio (down 4 bu. to 183 bu.).
USDA lowered its soybean crop estimate 4 million bu. from last month. The yield declined 0.1 bu. to 53.1 bu. per acre. Harvested area remained at 86.271 million acres.
Compared to last month, USDA lowered yields in Indiana (down 3 bu. to 60 bu. per acre), Minnesota (down 1 bu. to 48 bu.), Ohio (down 3 bu. to 52 bu.) and Wisconsin (down 1 bu. to 53 bu.). USDA left yields unchanged in Arkansas (55 bu.), Kansas (39 bu.), Nebraska (59 bu.), North Dakota (38 bu.) and South Dakota (47 bu.). USDA raised yields in Illinois (up 2 bu. to 67 bu.), Iowa (up 1 bu. to 64 bu.), Michigan (up 2 bu. to 52 bu.) and Missouri (up 1 bu. to 51 bu.).
USDA cut its cotton crop estimate 311,000 bales from last month. The yield was lowered 18 lbs. to 789 lbs. per acre. Harvested area was unchanged at 8.635 million acres. USDA raised the Texas yield 38 lbs. to 580 lbs. per acre. The Georgia yield was slashed 176 lbs. to 727 lbs. per acre.
U.S. carryover
Corn: 1.760 billion bu. for 2023-24, down from 1.812 billion bu. in September
— 1.999 billion bu. for 2024-25, down from 2.057 billion bu. in September
Beans: 342 million bu. for 2023-24, up from 340 million bu. in September
— 550 million bu. for 2024-25, unchanged from 550 million bu. in September
Wheat: 812 million bu. for 2024-25, down from 828 million bu. in September
Cotton: 3.15 million bales for 2023-24, unch. from 3.15 million bales in September
— 4.10 million bales for 2024-25, up from 4.0 million bales in September
Old-crop corn carryover of 1.760 was set by the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as of Sept. 1 and is down 52 million bu. from the September Supply & Demand Report. To get to that level, USDA cut total old-crop supplies 3 million bu. with the 2023 corn crop cut 1 million bu. and imports reduced 2 million bushels. Total old-crop use is put at 14.969 billion bu., up 49 million bu. from September. Food, Seed & Industrial use is estimated at 6.862 billion bu., up 7 million bu. from last month with corn-for-ethanol use put at 5.471 billion bu., accounting for 6 million bu. of that increase. Old-crop corn Feed & Residual use is put at 5.814 billion bu., up 39 million bu. from last month and exports are estimated at 2.292 billion bu., up 2 million bu. from September. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2023-24 at $4.55, down a dime from last month.
New-crop corn carryover at 1.999 billion bu. is down 58 million bu. from last month but is 55 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total supplies were cut 33 million bu. with the drop in beginning stocks more than offsetting the bigger corn crop estimate. Total new-crop corn use is projected at 14.990 billion bu., up 25 million bu. from last month. USDA left domestic use unchanged from last month and raised the export forecast by 25 million bu. to 2.325 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash corn price for 2024-25 at $4.10, unchanged from last month.
Old-crop soybean carryover of 342 million bu. was set by the Quarterly Grain Stocks Report as of Sept. 1, up 2 million bu. from the September S&D Report. To get to that level, USDA cut total supplies 2 million bu. with a 3-million-bu. reduction to the 2023 bean crop and a 1-million-bu. increase to estimated old-crop imports. Total use was cut 4 million bu. from last month with crush at 2.287 billion bu. (down 8 million bu. from last month), residual use is estimated at 45 million bu. (up 9 million bu.) and exports are put at 1.695 billion bu. (down 5 million bu. from last month). USDA puts the national average on-farm cash bean price for 2023-24 at $12.40, down a dime from last month.
New-crop soybean carryover at 550 million bu. is unchanged from last month but 3 million bu. above the average pre-report trade estimate. Total new-crop supplies were cut 2 million bu. from last month with a smaller crop estimate more than offsetting the increase to beginning stocks. Estimated total use for 2024-25 is down 2 million bu. from last month due to a 2-million-bu. cut in residual use to 36 million bushels. Crush was unchanged from last month at 2.425 billion bu. and exports were unchanged at 1.85 billion bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2024-25 at $10.80, unchanged from last month.
Wheat carryover for 2024-25 is projected at 812 million bu., down 16 million bu. from last month and 7 million bu. below the average pre-report trade estimate. USDA cut total supply 6 million bu. due to a 6-million bu. cut to beginning stocks, an 11-million-bu. drop in the crop estimate and a 10-million-bu. increase in estimated imports. USDA increased total wheat use 10 million bu. with Feed & Residual use up 10 million bu. to 120 million bushels. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash wheat price for 2024-25 at $5.70, unchanged from last month.
Old-crop cotton carryover is unchanged from last month. USDA made no changes to the old-crop supply or demand estimates from September. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2023-24 at 76.1 cents, up 0.1 cent from last month.
New-crop cotton carryover is up 100,000 bales from last month. USDA cut total supplies 310,000 bales from last month due to the smaller crop estimate. USDA lowered new-crop total cotton use 400,000 bales with domestic use down 100,000 bales to 1.8 million bales and exports down 300,000 bales to 11.5 million bales. Unaccounted use was also cut 10,000 bales to -40,000 bales. USDA puts the national average on-farm cash cotton price for 2024-25 at 66 cents, unchanged from last month.
Global carryover
Corn: 312.65 MMT for 2023-24, up from 309.63 MMT in September
— 306.52 MMT for 2024-25, down from 308.35 MMT in September
Beans: 112.37 MMT for 2023-24, up from 112.25 MMT in September
— 134.65 MMT for 2024-25, up from 134.58 MMT in September
Wheat: 266.18 MMT for 2023-24, up from 265.25 MMT in September
— 257.72 MMT for 2024-25, up from 257.22 MMT in September
Cotton: 75.20 million bales for 2023-24, down from 75.61 million bales in September— 76.33 million bales for 2024-25, down from 76.49 million bales in September
Global production highlights
Argentina beans: 48.1 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 48.1 MMT in September
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in September
Brazil beans: 153.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 153.0 MMT in September
— 169.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 169.0 MMT in September
Argentina wheat: 15.85 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 15.85 MMT in September
— 18.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 18.0 MMT in September
Australia wheat: 25.96 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 25.96 MMT for September
— 32.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 32.0 MMT in September
China wheat: 136.59 MMT for 2023-24; compares with 136.59 MMT in September
— 140.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 140.0 MMT in September
Canada wheat: 32.95 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 32.95 MMT in September
— 35.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 35.0 MMT in September
EU wheat: 134.87 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 134.87 MMT in September
— 123.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 124.0 MMT in September
Russia wheat: 91.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 91.5 MMT in September
— 82.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 83.0 MMT in September
Ukraine wheat: 23.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares from 23.0 MMT in September
— 22.9 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 22.3 MMT in September
China corn: 288.84 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 288.84 MMT in September
— 292.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 292.0 MMT in September
Argentina corn: 50.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 50.0 MMT in September
— 51.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 51.0 MMT in September
Brazil corn: 122.0 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 122.0 MMT in September
— 127.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 127.0 MMT in September
Ukraine corn: 32.5 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 32.5 MMT for September
— 26.2 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 27.2 MMT in September
South Africa corn: 13.4 MMT for 2023-24, compares with 13.7 MMT in September
— 17.0 MMT for 2024-25, compares with 17.0 MMT in September
China cotton: 27.35 million bales for 2023-24, compares with 27.35 million bales in Sept.
— 28.2 million bales for 2024-25, compares with 27.8 million bales in September