USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the Sept. 1 U.S. hog herd at 76.480 million head, up 347,000 head (0.5%) from last year and 195,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd declined 135,000 head (2.2%) to 6.044 million head. The market hog inventory increased 483,000 head (0.7%).
Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA(% of year-ago) | Average estimate(% of year-ago) |
All hogs on Sept. 1 | 100.5 | 100.2 |
Kept for breeding | 97.8 | 97.9 |
Kept for marketing | 100.7 | 100.4 |
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Market hog inventory |
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under 50 lbs. | 98.5 | 99.7 |
50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 98.7 | 100.2 |
120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 103.5 | 101.0 |
Over 180 lbs. | 104.8 | 101.4 |
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Pig crop (June-Aug.) | 99.2 | 99.1 |
Pigs per litter (June-Aug.) | 100.9 | 101.1 |
Farrowings (June-Aug.) | 98.3 | 98.6 |
Farrowing intentions (Sept.-Nov.) | 99.9 | 99.6 |
Farrowing intentions (Dec.-Feb.) | 99.1 | 100.1 |
The summer pig crop declined 265,000 head (0.8%) from last year to 35.030 million head, as a 1.7% drop in sow farrowings more than offset a 0.9% increase in the number of pigs per litter, which were a record 11.72 head.
Producers indicated they would throw the brakes on expansion, as fall and winter farrowing intentions are down 0.1% and 0.9%, respectively. However, if litter size keeps running at a record clip as it has for many quarters, it would likely continue to more than offset the smaller breeding herd and reduced farrowing intentions.
The data implies slaughter will run around 3.5% above year-ago through fall and early winter before tapering off to around 1.5% under year-ago during late winter/early spring.
USDA boosted its estimates of both the June 1 hog population and the number of market hogs by 725,000 head to 75.211 million and 69.204 million head, respectively. USDA also revised the March 1 hog inventory by 370,000 head to 74.691 million and the market hog total by the same amount to 68.676 million. The spring pig crop was revised upward by 102,000 head, while the winter crop was boosted 609,000 head.
The report data was mostly neutral compared to pre-report expectations, aside from expected near-term market hog inventories, which could weigh on nearby contracts.