USDA’s Hogs & Pigs Report estimated the Dec. 1 U.S. hog herd at 75.845 million head, up 384,000 head (0.5%) from last year and 309,000 head more than the average pre-report estimate implied. The breeding herd at 6.004 million head was virtually unchanged. The market hog inventory of 69.841 million head increased 378,000 head (0.5%) from last year.
| Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA (% of year-ago) | Average estimate (% of year-ago) |
| All hogs on Dec. 1 | 100.5 | 100.1 |
| Kept for breeding | 100.0 | 100.0 |
| Kept for marketing | 100.5 | 100.1 |
| Market hog inventory | ||
| under 50 lbs. | 101.2 | 100.5 |
| 50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 101.4 | 100.3 |
| 120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 99.4 | 99.4 |
| Over 180 lbs. | 98.8 | 99.0 |
| Pig crop (Sept.-Nov.) | 102.0 | 100.6 |
| Pigs per litter (Sept.-Nov.) | 102.2 | 100.7 |
| Farrowings (Sept.-Nov.) | 99.8 | 99.9 |
| Farrowing intentions (Dec.-Feb.) | 100.0 | 100.1 |
| Farrowing intentions (March-May) | 101.4 | 100.0 |
The fall pig crop at 35.238 million head rose 701,000 head (2%) from last year. Fall farrowings declined 0.2% from year-ago, though that was offset by a record 11.92 pigs per litter, which increased 2.2% from last year.
Producers indicated they intend to farrow about the same number of sows as year-ago through winter and then expand by 1.4% during spring. If the litter size continues to run at a record clip, the winter and spring pig crops will top last year’s levels by 1% to 3%.
The data implies slaughter will run slightly below year-ago through winter and then expand to around 1% above last year’s levels from spring into early summer.
USDA revised data back to summer 2023, including: The Sept. 1 hog inventory was reduced 385,000 head, though USDA increased the summer pig crop 407,000 head; The June 2024 hog inventory was reduced 410,000 head; The spring 2024 pig crop was cut 462,000 head; The Sept. 1, 2023, hog inventory was reduced 195,000 head; and the summer 2023 pig crop was lowered 161,000 head.