USDA’s May 12 Supply & Demand Report will be the first official release of balance sheets for 2022-23, which will incorporate March planting intentions. The big question with corn is whether USDA lowers its yield from trendline to reflect the slow planting pace as of early May — a rare occurrence in the past. Globally, focus will be on how much more “Ukraine factor” is added to the old-crop grain and oilseed balance sheets and the new-crop assumptions for both Ukraine and Russia. The major uncertainty shows up in pre-report range of estimates, many of which are wide. The following estimates are from a Reuters survey (aside from cotton, which is from Bloomberg.
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 1.412 | 1.352 |
Range | 1.340-1.456 | 0.988-1.654 |
USDA April | 1.440 | NA |
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Soybeans – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 225 | 317 |
Range | 175-260 | 187-488 |
USDA April | 260 | NA |
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Wheat – million bushels | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | 686 | 659 |
Range | 650-738 | 550-854 |
USDA April | 678 | NA |
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Cotton – million bales | ||
2021-22 | 2022-23 | |
Average est. | NA | 3.57 |
Range | NA | 1.80-4.50 |
USDA April | 3.50 | NA |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 303.76 | 296.91 |
Range | 299.30-308.00 | 278.00-307.70 |
USDA April | 305.46 | NA |
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Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 88.98 | 97.23 |
Range | 88.00-90.50 | 89.40-107.80 |
USDA April | 89.58 | NA |
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Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | 278.30 | 272.07 |
Range | 275.00-282.00 | 261.00-286.80 |
USDA April | 278.42 | NA |
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Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2021-22 | 2022-23 |
Average est. | NA | 83.74 |
Range | NA | 80.00-89.50 |
USDA April | 83.38 | NA |
There are also major uncertainties with what USDA will do with harvested acres and yield in its first U.S. winter wheat crop estimate. The following estimates are based on a Reuters survey.
Expectations for | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.791 |
Range | 1.635-1.915 |
USDA 2021 | 1.646 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.239 |
Range | 1.146-1.323 |
USDA 2021 | 1.277 |
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HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 685 |
Range | 568-779 |
USDA 2021 | 749 |
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SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 359 |
Range | 295-393 |
USDA 2021 | 361 |
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White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 199 |
Range | 161-237 |
USDA 2021 | 167 |
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