USDA’s May Supply & Demand Report on Friday will feature updated U.S. and global old-crop ending stocks, along with the first official look at the 2023-24 balance sheets. USDA will also issue its first winter wheat production estimate. The following pre-report estimates are from a Reuters survey; Bloomberg for cotton.
Expectations for U.S. Winter Wheat Production | |
All wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.789 |
Range | 1.640 – 1.924 |
USDA 2022 | 1.650 |
| |
Winter wheat – billion bu. | |
Average est. | 1.230 |
Range | 1.080 – 1.329 |
USDA 2022 | 1.104 |
| |
HRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 591 |
Range | 492 – 680 |
USDA 2022 | 531 |
| |
SRW wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 399 |
Range | 345 – 439 |
USDA 2022 | 337 |
| |
White winter wheat – million bu. | |
Average est. | 241 |
Range | 216 – 270 |
USDA 2022 | 236 |
| |
Expectations for U.S. Carryover | ||
Corn – billion bushels |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | 1.366 | 2.094 |
Range | 1.242 – 1.472 | 1.700 – 2.462 |
USDA April | 1.342 | NA |
| ||
Soybeans – million bushels |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | 212 | 293 |
Range | 179 – 250 | 225 – 371 |
USDA April | 210 | NA |
|
| |
Wheat – million bushels |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | 603 | 602 |
Range | 593 – 622 | 535 – 690 |
USDA April | 598 | NA |
|
| |
Cotton – million bales |
| |
2022-23 | 2023-24 | |
Average est. | NA | 4.18 |
Range | NA | 3.33 – 5.05 |
USDA April | 4.10 | NA |
Expectations for Global Carryover | ||
Corn – MMT | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | 295.16 | 307.47 |
Range | 293.00 – 299.00 | 295.00 – 327.10 |
USDA April | 295.35 | NA |
| ||
Soybeans – MMT | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | 99.03 | 108.07 |
Range | 95.00 – 101.80 | 99.50 – 134.00 |
USDA April | 100.29 | NA |
| ||
Wheat – MMT | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | 265.09 | 259.69 |
Range | 263.00 – 267.00 | 245.70 – 270.00 |
USDA April | 265.05 | NA |
| ||
Cotton – million bales | ||
| 2022-23 | 2023-24 |
Average est. | NA | 90.34 |
Range | NA | 86.00 – 92.76 |
USDA April | 92.01 | NA |