The extended weather outlook from the U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) calls for increased chances of above-normal temperatures across most of the U.S. aside from far northern areas west of the Great Lakes, where there are “equal chances for above-, below- and normal temps. Below-normal precipitation is also expected from the southwestern Plains through the Southeast, while small pockets of above-normal precip are likely over the Pacific Northwest and far northern Great Lakes region. There are “equal chances” for precip across the remainder of the United States.
ENSO-neutral conditions remain in place, but CPC signals there are 60% odds a weak La Niña event will develop by the end of November and persist through winter before neutral conditions are likely to return. A weaker La Niña implies it would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance, which is the case with the extended outlook.
The Seasonal Drought Outlook calls for drought to develop or persist over most HRW areas (aside from Montana) and across southern SRW locations through January. Drought is expected to improve or be removed over most northern SRW areas.
