Better quality soils in Illinois saw a decline in value in 2024, according to the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ISPFMRA).
Its annual survey found the value of excellent-quality cropland declined 3.3% versus a year earlier while the value of good-quality cropland slipped 0.8% from 2023. Results shift when considering lower-quality ground. The survey shows a 4.45% increase in the price of average-quality ground and an 8.75% gain in the value of fair-quality soils.
The survey pegs the statewide value of excellent-quality soils with a soil productivity index (PI) of 133 to 147 at $16,359 per acre. It lists the value of good-quality soils with a soil PI of 117 to 132 at $12,626 an acre. The value of average-quality soils with a PI of 100 to 116 is listed at $9,978 an acre. It puts the average value of fair-quality ground with a PI of less than 100 at $8,141 an acre.
According to Luke Worrell, AFM, ALC, with Worrell Land Services, Jacksonville, Ill., and overall chair of the survey: “2024 was a year of transition. We finally saw some softening in the land market and some downward pressure on rental agreements, as well.” He notes weaker demand for high quality cropland driven by the drop in grain prices did not appear until the final quarter of last year.
“The last quarter of 2024 was especially telling,” he says. “That is the point at which we truly saw the most softening and it became apparent the market was beginning to shift. The overall 2024 results would have looked drastically different if we had only looked at the last quarter of the year. “Those changes have continued here in the early stages of 2025,” he continues.
“Many areas have seen continued unpredictability in the land market. “Sure, there will always be those strong sales that get the neighbor hood talking,” he comments. “But by and large, the market has continued to be erratic and is slowly working its way downward.”
He continues. “There have been more ‘no sales’ in the auction world over the last six months than we saw in all of 2021 to 2023 combined. Commodity prices, rising interest rates and other macro-economic factors have all played a part in this changing market.”
According to a simultaneous and allied survey conducted by Gary Schnitkey, Ph.D., University of Illinois, most respondents expect farmland prices to remain the same or decline in 2025. Only 5% of respondents expect farmland prices to increase, he notes. In total, 31% of respondents look for prices to remain the same, while 64% anticipate prices will decline. Almost half (49%) of the respondents expect a decline of less than 5%; 13% look for a decline between 5% and 10%; only 2% anticipate a decline of more than 10%.
There was a sharp decline in the volume of farmland sold in the last half of 2024. Some 60% of respondents indicate a decrease in volume the last half of 2024 versus the last half of 2023. Respondents roughly expect the same volume of sales in 2025 as occurred in 2024.
At 57%, settling estates remains the top reason for farmland sales.
Local farmers remain the chief buyers of farmland at 57% with another 2% being relocating farmers. Recreational buyers are 5% of the market. Local investors are 17% and nonlocal investors 13% with institutions accounting for 6% of buyers.