Hot, dry weather stresses crops in heart of the Corn Belt and Northern Plains

USDA now rates 65% of the U.S. corn crop “good” to “excellent” (G/E), a three-point drop from the week prior and a point lower than analysts surveyed by Reuters expected, on average. Recent heat and dry weather had a bigger toll on crops than the market expected.

Of particular note, top-producing Iowa had just 56% of the crop rated G/E as of Sunday, a seven-point dive from the week prior, with state statisticians reporting corn curling and ground cracking. Some areas of the state did see some modest rainfall on Sunday. Also of note, Minnesota has just 50% of its crop rated G/E, an eight-point drop from the week prior. And in South Dakota, just 34% of the crop is rated G/E.

Ratings are better in the eastern Corn Belt where drought is far less prevalent, and in Nebraska. Sixty-four percent of Illinois’ crop and 83% of Nebraska’s crop is rated G/E.

Soybean ratings drop as expected

As of Sunday, USDA rates 60% of the U.S. soybean crop G/E, which was right in line with expectations and a two-point dip from the week prior. The crop is rated 10 points below last year at this time. Again, the lowest ratings of the top-producing states come in Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri and the Dakotas.

Soybean planting advanced three percentage points over the past week to 97% complete, which was in line with expectations and three points ahead of average. Ninety-one percent of the crop had emerged as of Sunday vs. 85% on average. Five percent of the crop is blooming, which is right in line with the norm.

Big improvement for cotton ratings

Cotton planting advanced to 96% complete as of June 20, a point more advanced than the five-year average. USDA reports 21% of the crop was squaring and 4% of it was setting bolls, four points behind and right in line with the respective five-year averages. Six percent of Texas’ crop is setting bolls along with 1% of the Georgia crop.

Recent moisture helped lift crop ratings, with 52% of the crop now rated G/E, a seven-point jump from the week prior. Top producing Texas is largely free of drought. And a tropical storm brought needed moisture to the Carolinas.

Spring wheat condition ratings plummet

USDA now rates just 27% of the spring wheat crop G/E, as rains last week had little impact on bone-dry soils in the Dakotas. That represented a 10-point plunge from last week’s already low rating and easily outdid the two-point dip analysts expected on average. Of note, USDA now rates 37% of the crop “poor” or “very poor,” a 10-point surge from last week.

Twenty-seven percent of the spring wheat crop is headed, which is nine percentage points more advanced than the five-year average.

Winter wheat harvest picks up, but still lags the average

As of Sunday, 96% of the winter wheat crop was headed and 17% of it had been harvested. The latter is a 13-point advance from the week prior but still nine points behind the average. USDA now rates 49% of the crop G/E, a one point improvement from the week prior and a point better than the market expected.