USDA estimated the Dec. 1 hog herd at 73.119 million head, down 1.327 million head (1.8%) from year-ago and 210,000 head less than the average pre-report estimate implied. The hog herd was the smallest for Dec. 1 since 2016 and was down 6.5% from the 2019 peak. The market hog inventory at 68.321 million head declined 2.0%, while the breeding herd at 6.154 million head rose 0.5% from last year. The fall pig crop was estimated at 33.961 million head, down 432,000 head (1.3%) from last year as farrowings fell 1.5%, more than offsetting a record number of pigs per litter.
Hogs & Pigs Report | USDA | Average estimate |
All hogs on Dec. 1 | 98.2 | 98.5 |
Kept for breeding | 100.5 | 99.8 |
Kept for marketing | 98.0 | 98.4 |
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Market hog inventory |
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under 50 lbs. | 98.0 | 98.6 |
50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 98.0 | 98.5 |
120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 98.1 | 98.7 |
Over 180 lbs. | 98.1 | 97.7 |
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Pig crop (Sept.-Nov.) | 98.7 | 98.4 |
Pigs per litter (Sept.-Nov.) | 100.3 | 100.2 |
Farrowings (Sept.-Nov.) | 98.5 | 98.3 |
Farrowing intentions (Dec.-Feb.) | 101.0 | 99.8 |
Farrowing intentions (March-May) | 100.5 | 99.9 |
Based on market hog inventories in the report, slaughter will run about 2% under year-ago through the first half of 2023.
The slightly bigger breeding herd, along with winter and spring farrowing intentions that were 1.0% and 0.5% above year-ago, respectively, suggest hog producers may start to rebuild their herds. But we have our doubts winter and spring farrowings will live up to the levels producers indicated.
USDA made modest revisions to past data. The June 1 market hog inventory was reduced 210,000 head and the Sept. 1 market hog inventory was cut 115,000 head, as USDA lowered its spring and summer pig crop figures.
The data should be supportive for winter-, spring and early-summer lean hog futures. Far-deferred contracts could face some pressure with the data implying the herd contraction phase may be coming to an end.