On average, analysts surveyed by Reuters expect USDA will report the June 1 hog herd around 75.572 million head, down 2.3% from year-ago. The breeding herd is expected to be down 1.1% from year-ago, with marketings down 2.4%. Market weight categories are all expected to be down from year-ago, with the biggest declines in the heavier weight categories. The wide range of expectations regarding pigs per litter reflects uncertainty stemming from struggles with PRRS over the winter and spring. Also of note, high feed costs are expected to limit farrowings and farrowing intentions through summer. The report will be released at 2:00 p.m. CT Thursday. We’ll have coverage of the data in “Evening Report.”
| Range of estimates | Average estimate |
All hogs June 1 | 97.7 | 96.5-99.0 |
Kept for breeding | 98.9 | 98.2-100.0 |
Kept for marketing | 97.6 | 96.3-99.1 |
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Market hog inventory |
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under 50 lbs. | 99.1 | 97.2-101.4 |
50 lbs.-119 lbs. | 99.0 | 97.3-100.2 |
120 lbs.-179 lbs. | 95.6 | 94.0-99.1 |
Over 180 lbs. | 94.4 | 90.4-99.3 |
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Pig crop (March-May) | 98.1 | 97.0-99.8 |
Pigs per litter (March-May) | 100.5 | 99.5-102.3 |
Farrowings (March-May) | 97.6 | 97.3-98.0 |
Farrowing intentions (June-Aug.) | 96.7 | 95.8-97.5 |
Farrowing intentions (Sept.-Nov.) | 99.2 | 97.8-101.0 |